NBA Betting Stories: Celtics, Knicks and notable Bronny bets Trendy Blogger

The NBA season begins Tuesday with a familiar favorite, a bevy of hot contenders and a father-son saga with an absurd betting twist.

Here’s what the betting world is watching as the season approaches:

The Celtics have the best chance to win a title; belief in the Knicks

For the third year in a row, the Boston Celtics enter the season as favorites to win the title and enjoy consistent support from oddsmakers. More bets have been placed and more bets on Boston to win the championship than on any other team at most sportsbooks. The Celtics drew more than twice as much money as any other team on ESPN BET.

The championship odds, however, suggest there are plenty of quality contenders. According to ESPN Research, seven teams have title odds of 10-1 or less at sports betting sites, the most players entering the season since 1999-2000.

The New York Knicks made the biggest splash of the offseason, with the additions of Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges, but the roster moves resulted in only small adjustments to their odds. Still, the Knicks’ win total plus/minus is 53.5, their highest in 30 years, and they have the third-best title odds (+750) behind only the Celtics (+300) and the Thunder. Oklahoma City (+675), the favorite of the Western Conference.

Teams with NBA title odds 10-1 or less (as of Thursday, via ESPN BET)

Celtics +300
Thunder +675
Knicks +750
Denver Nuggets +825
Philadelphia 76ers +825
Dallas Mavericks +1000
Minnesota Timberwolves +1000

Undeniable betting interest on Bronny James

Zach Edey, the Memphis Grizzlies’ new center, has become the consensus favorite to win Rookie of the Year honors after an impressive summer league and preseason. Edey, who opened 10-1 to win the prize after the draft, is now the ROY favorite at 3-1 on ESPN BET. But he is not the most popular choice among punters.

There have been more bets on Bronny James of the Los Angeles Lakers to win Rookie of the Year than any other candidate at several sports betting sites. At BetMGM, Bronny, son of the great LeBron James, accounts for just over 20% of all bets placed on the book’s odds of winning Rookie of the Year. Bronny drew seven times as many bets to win Rookie of the Year as his father drew to win MVP.

Bronny James is listed around 300-1 in the Rookie of the Year betting markets, but can be found as high as 1,000-1 at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas. Jeff Sherman, who oversees NBA odds for the SuperBook, said they have a “six-figure liability” on James’ Rookie of the Year award.

“(Lakers coach) JJ Reddick said the other night he was going to use a nine-man rotation,” Sherman said. “Bronny won’t be one of them.”

The interest in Bronny James is undeniable, however. Sportsbooks have posted numerous bets on Bronny throughout the season, including “Will he score 20+ points in a regular season game?” » at 12-1 at SuperBook.

“Good handle on that one,” Sherman said.

Luka, Wemby and SGA are the best MVP odds

Mavericks superstar Luka Doncic is the consensus favorite to win the sports betting MVP award, but other contenders have attracted earlier betting interest. More money has been bet on Celtics forward Jayson Tatum than on any other player’s MVP odds on ESPN BET. San Antonio Spurs big man Victor Wembanyama and Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander also got early support from bettors in the MVP odds.

Awards Favorites (starting Thursday; via ESPN BET)

MVP: Luka Doncic +350
Rookie of the Year: Zach Edey +300
Defensive Player of the Year: Victor Wembanyama -160
Most Improved Player: Victor Wembanyama +750
Sixth Man of the Year: Monk Malik +600
Coach of the Year: Tom Thibodeau

Load management continues to affect betting lines

Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid recently told ESPN’s Tim Bontemps that he’ll “probably never play back-to-back” for the rest of his career. For the 2023 MVP, the reasoning is simple.

“I accomplished everything (individually),” Embiid said. “But one thing is missing, and that’s winning a championship.”

For bettors, however, Embiid’s statement complicates future and daily betting, and not just for Embiid or the 76ers. Many older star players routinely sit out half of a straight set or even a match against an inferior opponent in order to manage the load.

“Teams are going to position themselves to be healthy and in the best possible shape to win an NBA championship, at least (teams with) older guys,” Johnny Avello, DraftKings director of sports betting operations, said. at ESPN. “For us on the bookmaker side, we have to be very aware of the winning totals and everything that’s happening for the year.”

Avello says that when load management first became common about a decade ago, the books were struggling to keep up with news of sudden absences and were frantically making massive changes to the point distribution. Now, he says his NBA team is much more aware of the phenomenon and tries to anticipate superstars taking nights off.

This also has big ramifications for futures, namely total winnings and individual rewards. This has become especially true in the 65-game era, which states that a player must play a minimum of 65 games to be eligible for awards or All-NBA teams.

As a result, among the top eight players on the ESPN BET odds board (not including Embiid), the average age is 25.75, and every participant is under 30 years old.

“The younger guys who are in the league for the first time and maybe only a few years later, they have a different mentality on what they’re trying to accomplish,” Avello said. “Young people will want to play all the time.”

The SuperBook’s Sherman says point spreads are typically adjusted by 1.5 to 2 points when a game features a team playing the second game in a row against a team with at least one day off. The adjustment seems precise. Over the last three years, teams in the second game of a row have a very even score of 446-464-16 against the spread.

Everything and nothing

• Wembanyama is 12-1 to record a quadruple double in the regular season and +130 to score 50+ points in a game at FanDuel.

• The SuperBook reports accepting bets from savvy NBA bettors on the following season win totals:

Atlanta Hawks over 35.5
Knicks under 54.5 and 53.5
76ers under 53.5
Utah Jazz under 30.5
Orlando Magic on 46.5

• Doncic has the most individual points per game this season (33.5) of any player listed on ESPN BET. Embiid (31.5), Gilgeous-Alexander (30.5) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (30.5) are just other players listed at 30+ points.

• In BetMGM’s odds of making or missing the playoffs, more money has been bet on the Lakers to miss the playoffs than any other team.

• Goals scored in the regular season have spiked over the past two seasons. Games averaged 229.4 points in 2022-23 and 228.4 last season, compared to 221.2 in 2021-22. Both average scores per game are the highest since 1990, according to ESPN Research. The betting market, however, followed the increase in scores. The average total plus/minus last season was 228.2, just 0.2 points lower than the average total score.

• Scores are generally lower at the beginning and increase throughout the season. Over the past three seasons, October and November games have averaged 221.6 and 223.0 points, respectively. Regular season games in other months of the season, from December to mid-April, averaged about 227.5 points.

• The Thunder have the best ATS record at home over the past three seasons, covering 59.7% of games in Oklahoma City. The Brooklyn Nets have the worst ATS record at home, covering just 39.3% of games in Brooklyn.

• The Lakers have had more games over the total than any other team over the past three seasons. The New Orleans Pelicans have been involved in the most unders over the past three seasons.

• The Nets, at 19.5, have the lowest win total this season in the league. They are the first team to have a win total under 20 since the 2014-15 “trust the process” 76ers.

• The team that attracted the fewest bets to win the NBA title? The Washington Wizards, who are 1,000-1 to win the championship at BetMGM.

ESPN writer Doug Greenberg and ESPN researcher Mackenzie Kraemer contributed to this article.