The 2024 WNBA season has been one for the books, and it will conclude Sunday (8 p.m. ET, ESPN) in a winner-take-all matchup at Barclays Center between No. 1 seed New York Liberty and No. 1 seed #2 Minnesota Lynx. .
Home teams are 5-2 all-time entering Game 5 of the WNBA Finals.
The Liberty could have won their first championship in franchise history on Friday, but the Lynx held court. New York, the league’s only original franchise without a title, has lost its previous five championship appearances.
Minnesota can win a record fifth WNBA title with a win on Sunday. Cheryl Reeve is 2-1 in Game 5 of the Finals as head coach.
What should we expect in Game 5? ESPN breaks down the X-factors and predicts which team will be crowned champions.
Is this the best WNBA final in league history?
Michael Voepel: There’s usually a recency bias with questions like this because what we saw last week is so recent.
That said, there are good arguments in favor of this series. The distance was covered and three of the four games were decided by three points or less. And the other – New York’s 80-66 victory in Game 2 – was a two-point game with less than 4 minutes to play. There is often at least one missed game, even in a very good championship series, but that didn’t happen.
We saw a little bit of everything:
Game 1, Lynx victory: An 18-point comeback, a four-point play to take the lead in the last five seconds by Courtney Williams and overtime. Game 3, Liberty victory: Sabrina Ionescu’s 3-pointer from 28 feet with one second remaining. Game 4, Lynx victory: Bridget Carleton’s two winning free throws with two seconds remaining. This match was also the closest from start to finish, with 14 lead changes and 13 ties.
Sunday will mark Reeve’s sixth Finals Game 5 (including her stint with the Detroit Shock as an assistant coach), so she’s well-positioned to make comparisons. She said the Minnesota-Los Angeles Sparks finals in 2016 and 2017, both of which went five games, stood out because several future Hall of Famers played for both teams.
Two games in the 2016 Finals ended on last-second shots, both won by the Sparks. The first two matches of the 2017 final were decided by one and two points, the next three by 11, 11 and 9 points.
The 2024 WNBA Finals were ____.
Charlie Cream: Breathtaking. All four games were close late. For your viewing pleasure, few series in basketball history have been better.
Alexa Philippou: Gratifying. In a season that has welcomed many new fans and viewers due to the sensational class of rookies, it’s a treat to have these two teams – historic and special in their own way – put on a series of such a high standard. It’s the latest reminder of the quality of players, coaches and basketball within the WNBA, long before its sudden rise to cultural prominence.
Voice : Atrocious for Liberty fans. Some New York faithful date back to 1997. They have stayed the course despite numerous playoff disappointments. It felt like it was “their year,” especially after beating the two-time defending champion Las Vegas Aces in the semifinals. But the Lynx are making the Liberty work as hard as possible. Some New York fans will watch Game 5 like it’s a horror movie that could go horribly wrong. Such is the price of long-standing fandom.
Who or what will be the X factor in Game 5?
Philip: The health and efficiency of Alanna Smith, who is dealing with a back problem that (along with foul trouble) kept her sidelined for much of Game 3. She finished with 12 points and 7 rebounds in 30 minutes in Game 4, a good sign for the Lynx, who also got solid minutes from Dorka Juhasz. After a steal and quick turnaround after Friday’s game, whether Smith can continue to contend against Jonquel Jones will be a huge factor for Minnesota.
And as obvious as it may seem, this game could come down to which team makes the fewest mistakes down the stretch and which one gains momentum. Late fouls, efficient free throws and key 3-pointers swung the outcome of three of the four games in the Finals. If Sunday comes down to the final minute or seconds, the execution at the end of the match will decide which team will be crowned champions.
Cream: Officer. I don’t think Friday’s game was officiated unfairly, as Sandy Brondello said in Friday’s post-match press conference, but now both coaches have engaged in some posturing towards officials. How Game 5 is called will be something to watch. After the third game, Minnesota’s Reeve lamented that Napheesa Collier received more attention from officials than Breanna Stewart. In Game 4, Stewart was the superstar in trouble. Did Reeve’s words have any influence? We’ll never know, but now that Brondello has publicly expressed his displeasure with the whistles after a game in which his team attempted 11 fewer free throws, it will be interesting to see what the foul and free throw numbers look like Sunday.
Voice : It feels like there’s more pressure on the Liberty, for obvious reasons as they seek their first championship. The way they defend from the point can set the tone in this match. The way Breanna Stewart plays offensively is the other big one. As we saw in Game 3, she can totally take over. But as we saw in Game 4, she can also struggle with her shot accuracy.
Can the Liberty win the title if Stewart and Ionescu shoot like they did on Friday?
Voice : In Game 4, you could tell that Stewart and Napheesa Collier were feeling the pressure of battling for over a week. Collier was 4 of 10 from the field and Stewart was 5 of 21. But with everything on the line Sunday, it’s likely we’ll see strong performances from both sides. So getting good shooting from Ionescu could be an absolute key for New York.
Philip: The Liberty were on the verge of winning a championship with those two mediocre shots Friday, thanks to contributions from Jones, Leonie Fiebich and Betnijah Laney-Hamilton. So maybe it’s not impossible to win in such circumstances – especially if Jones comes out – but it greatly reduces the margin for error.
Still, it’s no coincidence that in New York’s two Finals losses, Ionecsu shot 30.8% and 33.3% (compared to 55.6% and 41.7% in their wins) and Stewart shot less than 30% (compared to 38.9% and 45%).
Stewart and Ionescu are New York’s leaders and must make shots throughout the most important game of their Liberty careers. But the Liberty also need to clean up some of their offensive process; New York’s movement and decision-making on offense in parts of this series are more to blame than missed shots.
Cream: No. This may seem like too absolute an answer given that New York almost won Game 4 with its two biggest stars combining to shoot 10 for 36. Stewart and Ionescu also shot poorly in Game 1, an overtime loss for the Liberty . And that’s it: in New York’s victories in this series, Stewart scored 21 and 30 points. Ionescu made 10 of 21 shots combined in Games 2 and 3 and hit the game-winning 3-pointer in Game 3. Sure, Jones and Fiebich were outstanding in Game 4, but we saw that that wasn’t enough not. New York needs its stars, at least one of them, to be exactly that to win the first title in franchise history.
The Lynx have already won one game in this series at Barclays. How do they go about making another one?
Philip: They will have to put on another defensive masterclass. In the two games Minnesota lost in this series, New York shot over 45% from the floor and 40% from 3. And as we discussed previously, slowing down Ionescu and Stewart would go a long way. If Stewart and Collier neutralize each other, can a combination of Kayla McBride, Courtney Williams and Bridget Carleton land big shots down the stretch?
Voice : If the Lynx took the lead late, they might be able to force the Liberty to split like they did in the first game. It just felt like New York’s players hadn’t really pulled together in that loss, as they all tried to get back on their feet. the solo ship after its 15-point lead disappeared in the final five minutes of regulation.
Which team will win on Sunday?
Cream: New York. But it will be tight again. Stewart will rebound and make a big play late. The Liberty have gained home-field advantage by being the best team in the league all season. That’s what this event is all about, and the Barclays Center crowd, which will almost certainly number more than 18,000, will give New York just the right amount of pep.
Philippou: New York. This series has been full of surprises, but I’m going to stick with my initial prediction. Courtney Williams kept saying before Game 3 that the Lynx didn’t want to return to Brooklyn because of how energized the crowd was for the Liberty. And after the Aces celebrated a championship at Barclays Center last year, the Liberty won’t let a visiting team do it again.
Vopel: Minnesota. Reeve had the best possible answer Friday on what would decide Game 5: “They’re two great teams. Who knows? That’s why this series was so good. Even though the Liberty had the better regular season record and were the No. 1 seed, the Lynx had the upper hand over New York in the regular season and in the Commissioner’s Cup final. There really was an even balance.
As Charlie and Alexa mentioned, the Barclays crowd could be a sixth player in this match; the energy level will be incredible. But having chosen the Lynx early in the series, I’ll stick with that.
