The return of the great powers: Russia, China and the next world war
By Jim Sciutto
Random Penguin House2024
The political world, both national and international, is characterized by frequent changes and transformations. Although there are recurring themes such as the quest for power and the inevitability of conflict, the dynamics of who wields that power, how conflicts arise, and the means by which they are fought are constantly evolving. History has shown us that new developments can fundamentally alter the global political landscape, as evidenced by events such as Hitler’s rise to power in the 1930s and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. When significant changes occur on the world stage, they invariably reshape the political domain. . Jim Sciutto’s new book, The return of the great powersseeks to understand these changes by analyzing the current state of international politics – from the war in Ukraine to simmering tensions in the South China Sea. Sciutto essentially offers a comprehensive guide to navigating the complexities of the contemporary geopolitical landscape, identifying the key players involved, and exploring their current interactions.
Sciutto structures his book in a conventional but effective manner, first laying out the fundamental facts and developments that shape today’s world. It focuses on what it calls “hot spots” – areas of heightened tension and conflict between major world powers. Through these hotspots, Sciutto provides historical perspective on how these areas of tension developed and explains the interaction between the different powers within them. For example, the Baltic Sea serves as a point of tension between NATO and Russia, where the two entities engage in small, potentially confrontational actions to gauge how far they can oppose each other. Although Sciutto uses historical data and reporting to lay the groundwork, he relies primarily on first-hand accounts from his own experiences as a journalist, as well as recent interviews, to paint a vivid picture of what is happening. passes through these hot spots. The main areas of focus for its analysis are Ukraine, Taiwan and the Baltic Sea.
After establishing the fundamental understanding of these hot spots, Sciutto moves to a more analytical phase. Again, relying heavily on primary sources for context, he delves into why each great power adopts their specific doctrines in certain flashpoints and how they non-verbally communicate their intentions across these flashpoints. tension. Examining the Taiwan Strait, for example, Sciutto discusses inconsistent U.S. safeguards to defend the region, framing this as part of a broader deterrence doctrine aimed at preventing a potential Chinese invasion. It raises the question of whether such a strategy could prove effective in the long term. Sciutto further uses these hotspots to explore how global powers – both allies and adversaries – maneuver to advance their interests. A notable example is his discussion of the unusual cooperation between China, India and the United States to deter Russia from using nuclear weapons during a period of heightened tensions in 2023. This analysis allows Sciutto to dissect what each power aims to achieve in international relations. and provides a deeper understanding of their strategic objectives.
The final chapters of the book are devoted to applying this analysis to anticipate how current interactions between great powers might shape the near future, and to considering how emerging technologies and new arenas of conflict might alter the landscape. existing geopolitics. Sciutto explores potential peace measures and possible outcomes for various hotspots, assessing their likelihood and possible impacts. For example, he wonders if the war in Ukraine could end, if China could make a decision to seize Taiwan and what the consequences would be. Sciutto also examines several emerging conflict areas, such as artificial intelligence, near space, and outer space, assessing how these areas could transform the battlefields on which great powers engage. Throughout this exploration, Sciutto frequently compares current diplomatic communications and treaties with those of the Cold War, ultimately concluding that today’s great powers operate without the safety net provided by agreements and understandings of the past.
The Return of the Great Powers is a thought-provoking examination of international politics, providing substantial insight into how the great powers interact in today’s global context. The focus on specific hot spots provides a unique vantage point from which to observe broad power dynamics, and the extensive use of primary sources adds a personal, nuanced perspective to areas often viewed only at face value. Sciutto’s analysis of great power interactions is compelling; he skillfully uses areas of contention to develop a deeper understanding of what each power seeks to accomplish and why they adhere to their respective political doctrines.
However, the title of Sciutto’s book, The return of the great powersis somewhat misleading. In fact, the book does not focus on the return of the great powers. Little is said about the rise of China and Russia or the changing relationship between the United States and its European allies. Instead, Sciutto’s work focuses primarily on the interactions between these great powers: how they navigate hotspots, the strategies they employ, and their overarching goals in these conflicts. According to Sciutto, the return of these great powers is a fait accompli; the book focuses primarily on how these powers interact with each other on the international stage.
Furthermore, Sciutto’s analysis omits an important factor: the role of small regional powers. While he examines the actions and strategies of Russia, China, the United States and Europe, he largely neglects countries like Saudi Arabia, Iran, Brazil, South Africa South and India, a power undoubtedly already great. While it is understandable that these smaller powers are not at the heart of the hot spots discussed by Sciutto, they nevertheless play a vital role in the broader analysis of how the great powers interact. In fact, these smaller powers are often the real sites of these hot spots. For example, in the Taiwan Strait, the Baltic Sea and the Ukraine conflict, it is mainly smaller nations like Ukraine and Taiwan that become the battlefields where major powers indirectly clash. By largely excluding the role these smaller powers play in great power conflicts, Sciutto’s analysis lacks a crucial dimension, creating a kind of political vacuum that leaves the global scene partially empty.
Despite this limitation, there is still much to learn from Sciutto’s work. The return of the great powers is a valuable resource for readers with a keen interest in contemporary international relations and the dynamics of great power politics. Although those with advanced knowledge of the subject may find the book’s focus on three specific flashpoints and exclusion of smaller powers somewhat restrictive, the analysis presented is nonetheless thought-provoking and worthy of careful consideration. .
Further reading on international electronic relations