On Thursday, Florida announced it would retain coach Billy Napier for the foreseeable future — likely through the 2025 season — making a strong statement about the program’s commitment to its third-year leader. It’s one of the more unexpected decisions of the 2024 season, given Florida’s uninspiring 4-4 record, eight games into what many considered a breakthrough year for Napier and the Gators.
It was certainly made with an eye toward the future. Florida is on the cusp of back-to-back seasons without a playoff appearance for the first time in 40 years. He must steal two more wins to earn bowl eligibility against a remaining schedule that includes No. 5 Texas, No. 14 LSU, No. 16 Ole Miss and rival Florida State. The Seminoles are going through a rocky year of their own, but have won against Florida in consecutive years by an average margin of 13 points.
What will this future actually look like under Napier? Things aren’t trending in the right direction, although Napier has done a decent job attracting talent to Gainesville in recent years. The Gators have yet to have a winning season with Napier at the helm, and they are 5-8 in the SEC since the start of the 2023 season.
Given the latest news, it seemed only right to take a look at what Florida could look like next year and where the Gators go from here now that Napier has more breathing room.
The offense is in good shape
I’m not saying that quarterback DJ Lagway is the only reason Florida decided to bring back Napier, but it’s hard to deny that the presence of the five-star freshman phenom had an impact on the process. Lagway, 247Sports’ No. 3 prospect and the top-ranked quarterback in the Class of 2024, is special enough to be a cornerstone of the program.
He took over as the full-time starter after Graham Mertz injured his ACL in a Week 7 loss to Tennessee, providing plenty of seasoning. Lagway completed 56 passes for 1,071 yards and six touchdowns while rushing for 114 yards. His potential is evident, with a huge arm and impressive accuracy on down throws.
There’s a ton of athleticism in Lagway’s 6-foot-3, 239-pound frame. giving him the ability to play outside the pocket and gain substantial yardage with his legs. Leaving Napier, who recruited Lagway, could have made it difficult to prevent a highly coveted prospect from entering the transfer portal. A consistent coaching staff gives him a solid reason to stay.
Beyond Lagway, Florida appears to be in good shape for the rest of its offense – assuming all eligible players return. Here’s a breakdown of Florida’s potential returning production on offense, eight games into the 2024 season:
|
The passing meters |
1,958 |
1,267 |
59.6% |
|
Touchdown passes |
12 |
6 |
50% |
|
Construction sites are rushing |
1,359 |
874 |
64% |
|
Rushing touchdowns |
17 |
11 |
64.7% |
|
Building sites receiving |
1,958 |
911 |
46.5% |
|
Receiving touchdowns |
12 |
8 |
66.7% |
Florida has other talented young players it wants to keep in its fold. Freshman running back Jadan Baugh showed he could be a reliable option out of the backfield over the next few years.
Sophomore wide receiver Eugene Wilson III is out for the rest of the year after undergoing hip surgery, but he’s one of the most electric playmakers in the SEC when healthy. These two are vital to Florida’s future, especially since the Gators are poised to lose Johnson and their top two receivers – Elijhah Badger and Chimere Dike – after the 2024 season.
Florida’s top five starting offensive linemen could also return in 2025. Of course, that comes with the natural caveats that some players could declare early for the NFL Draft, and the transfer portal is still an option whether Napier is back or not.
Young core on defense
Whether due to injuries or players who stood out, Florida has seen a bit of a youth movement on defense, particularly among the sophomores. The second-year players have made a big impact on all levels of Florida’s defense.
Edge rushers Kamran James and TJ Searcy are getting plenty of snaps. Linebackers Grayson Howard and Jaden Robinson both rank in the top five on the team in total tackles and have combined for 2.5 sacks. Safety Jordan Castell, who played a big role as a freshman, is second among defensive backs with 36 total tackles and currently leads the Gators with five assists. Sophomore Sharif Denson and redshirt freshman Aaron Gates both had an interception on a rotation in the slot corner.
Key veterans like defensive lineman Tyreak Sapp, linebacker Shemar James and cornerback Devin Moore all have at least one more year of eligibility. All of these players make up a solid defensive core that Florida definitely wants to keep together, especially with so many young players who will continue to develop.
Recruit in a rocky place
Talent acquisition hasn’t been a problem for Napier so far. Florida has posted back-to-back top 15 recruiting classes from 2023 to 2024. As noted above, many of these prospects are already contributing.
Napier has also done well in the transfer portal. Florida’s 2024 transfer ranked sixth in the nation, according to 247Sports, and the Gators have signed 12 four-star transfers over the past two cycles.
That being said, Florida’s recruiting has suffered from Napier’s continued struggles. The Gators’ 2025 class has just 11 commitments with less than a month until the early signing period. He ranks 51st in the 247Sports Team Composite recruiting rankings. There are a few gems, like wide receiver Vernell Brown III, but seven of Florida’s 11 commits are three-star prospects.
The Gators have seen three prospects decommit since the start of the 2024 season; all three are four-star players.
With most of the high-profile recruits already committed and time running out to make flips, Florida finds itself in a tough spot — especially since an overwhelming majority of players will sign during the December window. Sure, Florida could look for talent in the portal, but the program’s current path — even with renewed confidence in Napier — could make it a tough sell to transfers looking for a stable situation where they can improve their stock.
Again, it’s always possible that some of these young Gator stars decide to look for new programs. So any kind of turnaround could depend largely on Napier’s ability to retain and develop internal options.
MORE: 10 recruits the Gators need to go all-in on with Napier returning, according to Swamp247