Will “Red One,” a Christmas action comedy in which Dwayne Johnson plays Santa’s security chief, bring a boon to theaters at the box office?
The film, produced by Amazon MGM, is targeting $30 million to $35 million from 4,032 locations in its first weekend of release. Independent tracking services are mixed, suggesting that “Red One” could earn at least $25 million and as much as $40 million on its debut.
Ticket sales at the higher end of that range would be appropriate for an original holiday movie. However, “Red One” cost $250 million before factoring in global marketing efforts. So either way, the film will need positive word of mouth to herald a long life in theaters and justify its cost. Of course, Amazon MGM cares about more than just box office receipts and stresses that big-budget tentpoles don’t need to score on the big screen to be considered successful. The streaming giant is looking at movie theaters as a way to attract top talent to projects as well as generate buzz for its Prime Video streaming service. However, viewership data from streamers is not reported as uniformly as box office revenue, so it is impossible to determine whether the financial gamble will pay off. In the case of “Red One,” the film was commissioned for streaming before Amazon MGM chose to release it theatrically, so any box office returns would be a bonus for the studio and exhibitors.
“Red One” has already opened at the international box office with a meager $26.6 million from 25,195 screens in 75 overseas markets. Warner Bros. releases The film is in overseas markets as part of a distribution deal with Amazon and MGM.
Jake Kasdan (Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle) directed the film, which revolves around the kidnapping of Saint Nick (J.K. Simmons), whose disappearance sparks a rescue mission led by a gruff Arctic bodyguard (Johnson) and a reward. Hunter (Chris Evans). “Red One” was panned by critics (it scored 30% on Rotten Tomatoes). Miscellaneous Chief film critic Owen Gleiberman described the film as having an “unglamorous energy.” Gleiberman wrote in his review that he was “not sure a Hollywood film has ever started the season in a less authentic Christmas spirit.”
As the only new release this weekend, “Red One” is sure to top the domestic box office, besting three-time champion “Venom: The Last Dance.” The second part of the comic book from Sony took first place over the weekend with $15.9 million. It has grossed $114 million domestically and $393 million globally to date. Other notable remaining titles include Focus Features drama “Conclave,” Universal and DreamWorks Animation’s “The Wild Robot,” A24’s horror thriller “Heretic,” and Lionsgate’s religious thriller “The Best Christmas Pageant Ever.”
After a lackluster October and a soft start to November, total box office revenue remains down more than 11% from 2023 and about 27% from 2019, according to Comscore. Attendance is expected to soar around Thanksgiving, when a trio of promising films — “Wicked,” “Gladiator II” and “Moana 2” — grace the big screen… and hopefully give movie theater owners plenty to be thankful for.