I served as an international observer during the presidential elections in Somaliland on November 13, 2024. With the elections delayed by two years, incumbent President Muse Bihi Abdi of the Kulmiye party ran for a final term against candidates from the opposition, Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi of the Waddani party. , and Faysal Ali Warabe of the UCID party. These presidential elections recorded a participation of more than a million people, with voters spread across more than two thousand polling stations. These were the fourth elections in the history of this de facto country. The Las Anod conflict in eastern Somaliland, which delayed elections, pervasive poverty and the search for a solution to Somaliland’s lack of international status were key electoral issues.
Abdi’s campaign focused on gaining diplomatic recognition for Somaliland, while Abdullahi’s focused more on democratic reforms and social cohesion. Warabe focuses on national unity. Somaliland’s representative in Kenya, MA Mohamoud, created a veritable information storm during the elections by referring to the promised American support for this young nation. Indeed, Donald Trump, who had been elected president of the United States a few days earlier, had been cited by the Heritage Foundation as potentially being in favor of the independence of Somaliland. The election was also expected to decide whether a controversial deal with Ethiopia offering the landlocked country access to the sea via the port of Berbera, in exchange for recognition negotiations, could be fast-tracked. It was therefore a potentially historic election.
These highly anticipated elections resulted in the surprise victory of Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi. Official results released on November 19 showed that Abdirahman won 63.92 percent of the vote, while incumbent Muse Bihi Abdi received only 34.81 percent. The election was seen as a landslide victory for the opposition. Waddani had been politically paralyzed for almost two decades. Abdullahi reacted in a conciliatory tone, declaring that “everyone had won” and that “no one was defeated”, and that it was “an election of brotherhood, aimed at unifying the people”.
Incumbent President Bihi’s loss was attributed to personal unpopularity, caused by several controversial decisions, particularly the 1922 extension of his presidential term, which had caused riots and conflict in the eastern provinces. There is also no doubt that Abdullahi’s skillful diplomacy of marrying social improvement with these broader underlying issues of status determination proved to be a winning combination. Somalis were ripe for political change and were not convinced that their situation would improve under four more years of Abdi. In comparison, Abdullahi seemed to represent something new, and in this case, it outweighed the traditional advantages of incumbents on the African political scene.
One of the stabilizing factors in the conduct of the elections was the widespread respect for the National Electoral Commission (NEC). Created in 2001, it constitutes a fundamental institution in the democratic journey of Somaliland. The NEC’s impact was crystallized through its successful handling of the historic constitutional referendum of December 2001. This watershed moment not only ratified Somaliland’s national constitution, but also helped send good signals abroad about to a new climate of democratic governance in the Horn of Africa.
One of the NEC spokespersons told me on condition of anonymity:
For our part, it was an efficient operation, without too many pitfalls. The Commission now enjoys fairly widespread respect and allows us to prevent election-related irregularities. Our basic procedures worked well. What has worked less well is the electoral roll technologies. Computer outages in areas with intermittent power hurt the overall picture. If we stuck to simple pen and paper elections, there would not be such a technological failure. The state believes the technology tricks the public into believing elections are fairer. But it has the opposite effect when the technology fails and people automatically think that the state or some party is manipulating it. So in reality, a less technical election might result in less bad reporting.
Civil society organizations were less optimistic about the changes brought about by these elections. Reflecting the fact that Somaliland still has some way to go before consolidating its NGO community, domestic observers were rare. I spoke to a prominent civil society activist on condition of anonymity:
This doesn’t mean much in terms of power shift. All this effectively means a new team in the presidential office and a new set of decision-makers, but the impacts on Somaliland society are likely to be few. Everything is relative here. It wouldn’t be difficult for Abdullahi to appear a little more progressive alongside Abdi, but nothing much has changed. Civil society cannot hope for much in terms of easing state controls or societal freedoms. Life here is still a straitjacket, and if you complain about it, the first thing the opposition is told is to go next door (Mogadishu) where there is bloody anarchy.
Naturally, the winning party showed the way forward for Somaliland. A spokesperson for Abdullahi’s office told me:
This is a step forward. A chance to move Somaliland forward and build better ties with our supporters in the west. Such an opportunity comes rarely in life and the President is ready to make the most of this opportunity to create a new Somaliland closer to the west and within reach of recognition.
From Abdi’s side came a grudging concession from one of his Hargeisa-based party organizers:
The odds were stacked against us and there was such a campaign aimed at undermining us that even our strongest supporters were confused and nervous about this election. Western media, such as they are, chose not to report all the dirty tricks and manipulations that were going on behind the scenes. As for our own media, well, they have become less relevant over time. However, a warning: everything is fine; winning an election- but a whole different thing to winning a country.
To assess the actual experience of the people of Somaliland, we conducted interviews with those working in coalfields in urban and rural Somaliland. A doctor who runs a small clinic in the town of Gebilay said:
I’m not a politician, but whatever happens in Somaliland, we must do something about the continuing health crises engulfing us here. Our hospital system is so weak that people might as well die in the streets. It is impossible for a poor citizen to consult a doctor. When a foreign clinic visits a remote area, it discovers diseases that are seen almost nowhere else in the world. Types of infections that have become incurable outside of a modern hospital. If you become seriously ill in Somaliland, the only option now is medical evacuation. I doubt we even have basic vaccines like for rabies or medicine for acute fevers. Most people outside of Hargeisa live without ever receiving medical care, suffer from unnecessary and chronic health problems and have pitifully short lives… Perhaps the new president would strive to do something about this… I guess he’s more concerned about his own medical evacuation if he gets sick.
A university professor from Berbera offered a more balanced account of the implications of this election:
Somaliland declared independence from Somalia in 1991 amid conflict and has since maintained its own government, currency and security structures, despite not being recognized by any country in the world. Over the years, he has built a stable political environment, in stark contrast to Somalia’s current struggles with insecurity. This election constitutes a new step forward.
Murithi Mutiga, director of Crisis Group’s Africa program, added that “this result and above all the credible electoral process resulting in a peaceful transfer of power will consolidate Somaliland’s reputation as one of the most stable democracies in the Horn of Africa.” Africa”. The US Embassy provided formal support for the election results: “Somaliland’s impressive record of peaceful elections and transfers of power is a model for the region and beyond. » It should be noted, however, that Somaliland’s latest agreement with neighboring Ethiopia – granting Addis Ababa access to the Indian Ocean in exchange for recognition – has caused political tensions with Somalia, which accuses Ethiopia to undermine its territorial integrity.
The new opposition is demanding more economic benefits for Somaliland from the deal and criticizing how it was negotiated hastily and in secret. It remains to be seen what Abdullahi’s Waddani party will achieve in government. Concerns remain about the benefits that the controversial deal with Ethiopia may bring to Somaliland, as Mohamed Husein Gaas, director of the Raad Peace Research Institute in the Somali capital, Mogadishu, pointed out to the Associated Press.
However, Somali political leaders have expressed optimism about improving relations between the country and the breakaway region, including former Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire, who hoped the president-elect would “play a leading role in the strengthening the brotherhood and unity of the Somali people.” It is significant that there was no post-election violence. It would be an exaggeration to say that the road ahead seems easy, but there is no doubt that Somaliland has taken progressive steps, moving from a long history of endemic and brutal clan enmity, to a form of peaceful democratic transition.
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