I was an international observer during the two rounds of the 2024 Moldovan presidential election. The polls took place on October 20 and November 3. Incumbent President Maia Sandu and former Attorney General Alexandr Stoianoglo advanced to the second round of voting, with Sandu winning his second and final term. The international press widely described it as an East versus West duel, with Sandu embodying the pro-European side and Stoianoglo that of Moscow. Renato Usatîi (third in the first round) was less clear on his geopolitical orientations. He did not support either candidate in the second round. Candidates Victoria Furtună and Vasile Tarlev, who came fifth and sixth, are said to be in the pocket of Russian businessman Ilan Shor, providing further evidence of the fundamental division in contemporary Moldovan politics.
A slim majority of Moldovans voted “yes” to include the goal of EU membership in the country’s constitution. This was widely seen as an endorsement of Sandu. Inevitably, the vote was close, which Sandu blamed on Russian-sponsored interference. She cited “large-scale vote buying” by illegal Russians. The official OSCE report for both cycles was “extremely positive”, while also highlighting poor use of administrative resources and unbalanced, pro-Sandu media coverage. Sandu’s victory in the second round was certainly a relief for the Moldovan government.
The election took place in the face of a widespread security problem, with Moldovan authorities consistently accusing Russian-trained groups of sabotage. Seeking to allay public concern, the United States, United Kingdom, and Canada issued a statement in June 2024 opposing Russian influence. America also announced sanctions against Gagauz governor Evghenia Guțul. In September 2024, acts of vandalism against the Supreme Court and the public broadcaster Teleradio-Moldova were blamed on Russian subversion. In October 2024, the Moldovan state claimed to have disrupted the distribution of $15 million by pro-Russian oligarch Ilan Shor. Security checks have been tightened following an influx of passengers from Russia carrying cash.
Moldova subsequently accused Russia of plotting to “bus voters” to polling stations at its embassy in Moscow. In response, the EU imposed sanctions on suspected officials in the autonomous region of Gagauzia and a Russian-based entity. The United States has accused Russia of spending “millions of dollars” spreading disinformation. The Russian Foreign Ministry later accused Moldova of underprinting ballot papers, thereby depriving eligible Moldovans living in Russia of the right to vote. There have been numerous plots emanating from Moscow, Serbia and Bosnia, led by private military groups aimed at creating “mass unrest” during the elections. Olga Roșca, Sandu’s foreign policy advisor, said “Russia is pouring millions of dirty money into hijacking our democratic processes…” The EU has deployed its Cybersecurity Rapid Response Team to oversee cybersecurity issues .
On November 1, Prime Minister Dorin Recean reported death threats made against citizens across the country, which he described as an attempt to scare voters. The electoral authority (CEC) reported illegal transportation of voters to Russia, Belarus, Azerbaijan and Turkey. Stanislav Secrieru, Sandu’s national security adviser, said: “We are witnessing massive Russian interference in our electoral process, with high potential to distort the results. »
Moldovan citizens living abroad faced other security concerns during the second round of voting, including fake bomb threats at polling stations in several cities in Germany and the United Kingdom. The Moldovan government sent a note to Russian Ambassador Oleg Ozerov on November 12 to formally complain about Moscow’s interference. Nevertheless, 1,988 polling stations were opened throughout Moldova, including thirty for voters residing in Transnistria who had to travel to Moldovan-controlled territory. Promo-LEX observers detected 109 incidents at polling stations, electoral unrest, unauthorized persons, secrecy violations, obstruction of access to observers and unjustified interruption of voting.
During the presidential debate, Sandu accused Stoianoglo of being a “Trojan horse” candidate for outside interests eager to control Moldova. She said she would continue her pro-European approach, saying: “Membership of the European Union is Moldova’s Marshall Plan.” Stoianoglo claimed that he actually supports the EU and that “the level of Russian interference in Moldova is highly exaggerated.” In this context, Transnistria was probably the most unstable region of the country during the election period and it is interesting to assess the divided opinions expressed by residents of this region. A local pharmacist spoke of the difficulties of living in such an isolated enclave:
Elections are not a problem for most people here. On the one hand, they tell us that we are united with Mother Russia, but in reality it doesn’t go much further than the presence of a bunch of ragged Russian soldiers who view the local population as a source of income from whom they beg, borrow or steal everything they need. is not nailed. At night, farm animals are stolen and end up in the kitchens of the Russian brigade. Even Russian nationalists have come to view the Russian army as a vehicle of occupation and certainly not as a liberating force mentioned in Moscow’s propaganda. It is probably the most unfortunate and isolated territory in Europe. Even the mayor who walks around wrapped in the Russian flag has expressed doubts about Putin and wants to see some sort of status determination that gives some hope for the future.
It goes without saying that these comments were vigorously denied by the town hall. I spoke to one of the student union organizers, as I knew that Moscow offered scholarships to study in the Federation’s vast archipelago. I thought this might paint a more positive picture of Russian support for Transnistria. Here too, the reception was more negative than mixed:
Students are not very enthusiastic about the elections. Yes, we can go to the worst Russian university and get full scholarships, provided you are an athlete, or maybe a chess player, or have some exceptional talent that is in demand there. Alternatively, we could try our luck in Moldova where very few have managed to obtain funding under European programs. We are stuck like pawns in the middle of a kind of proxy war in which Moscow is subtly plotting against Brussels.
I spoke to a group of women, hoping to get a sense of a cross-cutting divide that might offer different perspectives of the divide between Moscow and Europe:
The election reinforces old political divisions in the territory. We are already very divided between those of us who keep alive the old Russian concept of the palace of culture where we keep something nostalgic hidden that still seems dear to the older residents of Transnistria. They make up maybe about half of the women’s movement, to the extent that you could say it’s a separate movement. In fact, it is more of a diverse collection of recreational groups that meet intermittently or perform at local festivals. I think it would be true to say that younger women are definitely more European leaning.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, given the high levels of residue from the conflict, there is also a group of environmental activists.
No one really knows what to say because being an environmentalist is almost implicitly being anti-Russian, so for the most part we try not to mention the big bear and invent another reason for military-grade pollution everywhere. …Last week, a cargo plane actually brought military waste back to the home base of Russian troops. We don’t know exactly what it was, but the teams involved in this plane were dressed like astronauts and no one was allowed near the airfield that day.
There are alternative voices that openly enrich Moldovan civil society. A gay activist told me:
We did not suffer as much as the gay groups present in Dushanbe, Grozny or Bishkek. Indeed, we have remained somewhat visible and as long as we do not push our presence too much, we are almost left alone. You might get teased by the Russian soldiers, but I think we manage to get by largely through clandestine meetings at each other’s homes and remaining discreet – we hide in plain sight. I don’t think there are any future plans for Gay Pride in Transnistria, but there have been problems with the one in Chisinau, and no one would look to Moscow for gay enlightenment. Our brothers and sisters there are certainly suffering too.
Moldova is a country at a crossroads. There are cross-cutting electoral divides as distinct environmental, LGBT, women’s and other voices have emerged to influence Moldovan elections. However, the dominant theme is one of contrasting forces in favor of Brussels and Moscow, since much of its sovereign territory remains effectively annexed to Russia. President Sandu now has the unenviable task of balancing these interests for the next four unpredictable years.
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