New Cold Wars: The rise of China, the invasion of Russia, and the United States’ struggle to defend the West
By David Sanger
Penguin Random House, 2024
David Sanger’s new book presents a timely analysis of emerging challenges for American foreign policy, describing contemporary tensions with China and Russia as a reincarnation of Cold War dynamics. Although Sanger brings a wealth of journalistic experience and insider knowledge to his analysis, his reliance on the Cold War metaphor oversimplifies the complexities of today’s global landscape.
In New Cold WarsSanger aligns with scholars like Hal Brands and Niall Ferguson, who propose that U.S. foreign policy should draw on Cold War frameworks in order to address China’s growing influence and the resurgence of Russian aggression. Sanger draws parallels between the original Cold War and today’s geopolitical climate by highlighting familiar themes: the decline of globalization, the rise of nationalism, the return of proxy wars, and growing nuclear threats. His argument is supported by alarming statistics: he cites former CIA director Robert Gates, who warns that the nuclear arsenals of Russia, China, North Korea and Iran could soon double the size of American stocks.
At the heart of Sanger’s analysis is the proposition that the United States is engaged in a new type of Cold War, defined by a more dangerous and multifaceted global rivalry. This is not the bipolar struggle between democracy and communism that shaped the 20th century, but a struggle that pits the United States against two adversaries with different but overlapping strategic objectives. China, as Sanger notes, is increasingly asserting itself in the South China Sea and its global economic reach, while Russia continues its military aggression by invading Ukraine. According to Sanger, these confrontations are eerily reminiscent of Cold War flashpoints, where American power was increasingly challenged on multiple fronts.
However, while Sanger offers an insightful critique of the current state of U.S. foreign relations, his framework fails to fully capture the complexities of modern world politics. One of the major differences between today and the Cold War era is the nature of alliances. The rigid ideological blocs that defined the Cold War have given way to much more fluid and pragmatic relationships. China and Russia may be strategic partners, but their partnership is not driven by a shared ideological commitment to remaking the world order in their image. Rather, their cooperation reflects mutual interests, particularly to counter Western domination. Likewise, their alliances with countries like Iran and North Korea stem from practical concerns rather than the ideological solidarity seen during the Cold War.
Sanger sometimes acknowledges these nuances, conceding that the rivalry between the United States and its adversaries is more complex than the ideological stalemate of the Cold War. For example, he cites the White House view that U.S. support for Ukraine more closely resembles its support for Britain during World War II than during the Cold War. However, despite this recognition, Sanger often sticks to the Cold War framework, which limits the analytical depth of his work.
Besides oversimplifying global dynamics, Sanger’s book also underestimates the growing importance of economic and technological competition. Today’s competition between great powers is as much about technological dominance – particularly in sectors like semiconductors, cybersecurity and artificial intelligence – as it is about military might. Sanger addresses these themes, particularly in his discussion of cybersecurity, but the focus remains on traditional military and geopolitical conflicts.
That said, Sanger offers a set of thoughtful policy recommendations to address these challenges. He advocates sensible strategies such as driving a wedge between Russia and China, renewing NATO strength, investing in cybersecurity, and avoiding unnecessary provocations with China over tariffs and sanctions. These recommendations are based on practical concerns and do not necessarily rely on a Cold War framework to be effective.
Ultimately, while New Cold Wars is an engaging and informative read, particularly for those interested in American foreign policy, it is limited by its reliance on Cold War analogies. Sanger’s gripping journalistic account brings out important details, but the framework he uses is insufficient to understand the multidimensional power struggles shaping the world today. As the world order evolves toward a more multipolar system, dominated by complex interdependencies and pragmatic alliances, the binary metaphor of the Cold War appears increasingly inappropriate. Sanger’s analysis captures the issues of the current moment but fails to provide a new conceptual vocabulary to meet the challenges of the 21st century.
In conclusion, New Cold Wars offers important insight into the strategic dilemmas facing the United States today, but ultimately oversimplifies the nature of modern geopolitics. The rise of China and the resurgence of Russia undoubtedly pose significant threats, but labeling these challenges as the “new Cold War” underestimates the fluid, multipolar, and multi-aligned nature of contemporary geopolitics. For policymakers and academics alike, a more nuanced framework will be needed to address the complexities of the current international system.
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