The stock market is expected to maintain a positive direction in the short term, as momentum is largely affected by the profits of the upcoming companies and inflation data in January 2025, according to a report issued by Akd Securities.
The market has been volatile throughout the week ending January 31, 2025, and is largely affected by corporate profits ads. During the week, the KSE-100 normative index threw 625 points, or 0.54 %, and closed at 114256 points. Fertilizers’ shares were largely weighed on the index, which led to a decrease in 742 points, after the low profitability of the FFC.
However, this was partly compensated by the higher final profits of banks, which contributed 612 points to the index and the total decline.
The market participation also decreased to the lowest level in 15 weeks, as the average daily trading volume reached 498 million, a decrease of 29 %.
The week began to cut the SBP policy rate by 100 basis points to 12 % amid a continuous direction of inflation. In addition, SBP has reviewed its inflation forecast for FY25 to 5.5 % -7.5 %, which is much lower than the previous projection of 11.5 % -13.5 %.
The central bank also changed the current account balance forecast to a range of 0.5 % to a deficit of 0.5 % of GDP in the 25th fiscal year, compared to the previous estimate of the 0 % -1 % deficit. Meanwhile, before reviewing the International Monetary Fund, the authorities received another case by notifying the price of gas for captive energy producers to 3,500 PKR3 per MMBTU.
SBP reserves decreased by $ 76 million to $ 11.4 billion as of January 24, 2025. The local currency was marginalized against Greenback, closing 0.07 % of the closure at 278.95 PKR against the US dollar.
Among the sectoral shows, the weaving fabric, car complexes, and banks were the best winners, increased by 4.1 %, 3.5 %, and 1.5 % per week, respectively. On the other hand, oil marketing companies (OMCS), engineering, and refinery sectors recorded 5.8 %, 5.3 %, and 3.0 % per week.
Regarding the market flows, foreign banks and investors have led net sale, which led to a value of $ 5.7 million and $ 4.7 million, respectively. Meanwhile, companies, other institutions and individual investors have absorbed most of the sale through net purchases of $ 5.6 million, 2.6 million dollars and $ 2.3 million, respectively.
At the level of the company, the senior representatives of the week included the Honda atlas (ATLH), an increase of 16.1 %, the National Bank of Pakistan (NBP), gained 11.9 %, Kohinoor (KTML), an increase of 9.1 %, Askari Bank (AKBL), increases 7.9 %,, Beloved Bank (Bahl), an increase of 7.4 %. Steels Limited (ISL), which decreased by 8.1 %, SUI (SNGP) northern (SNGP), a decrease of 7 %, unit foods (unit), 6.7 % loss, AGP Limited, 6.4 % reduction, and Kosmopolitan Investments (Kosm (Kosm), which decreased 6.1 % a week per week.
According to the mediation report, the standard KSE-100 index is expected to maintain its upward path, with expectations to 16,5215 points by December 2025.
This view is driven by a strong profitability in the fertilizer sector, sustainable sustainable returns for banks, and improving the cash flows of exploration and production companies (E&P) and oil marketing companies (OMCS), with the support of low interest rates.
