In 2022, NATO declared China a strategic priority for the next decade for the first time in its history, citing growing security challenges. Until then, the alliance had focused mainly on the Soviet Union and later Russia as the main threat. The addition of China to the list reported a change in the strategic orientation of NATO. While the United States and its European allies seemed to agree on this decision, it remains to be seen that this consensus will be held in the years to come.
For Europeans, Russia has long been a greater threat than China. Russia is geographically closer, has history of military aggression in Europe and, more recently, has invaded Ukraine demonstrating its will to widen influence by force. For the United States, however, China was the long-term urgent concern, given its growing power in the international system. As a country that has known the unipolar moment and considered itself to be the chief of the liberal order, the United States considers the rise of China mainly as a great rivalry of power rather than a simple threat of security.
European states, on the other hand, have not considered themselves in these terms for a long time. Having experienced a first -hand multilateralism through the European Union, they were more open to a global order in which several powers collectively share the world challenges. While Europe has had its own disputes with China, including electric vehicles – it has generally taken a softer position than the United States on wider questions about Beijing. Since the EV problem is already solved, it is likely that relationships can become even less tense.
Today, European states are increasingly concerned about security because US officials report a reluctance to maintain their current level of support. In response, European governments are preparing for a potentially future without our supporting in NATO, exploring alternative security agreements and signing bilateral defense agreements. While Russia remains the main threat, Europe can find it difficult to manage two major opponents without American support. Consequently, a decrease in the American role in European security could push European states to strengthen links with China and even seek cooperation on key issues. China also considers this change favorably. In February, the Chinese Foreign Ministry proposed more in -depth cooperation with Europe to raise the increase in “global challenges”. Earlier this year, during a telephone call between the presidents of the Chinese Council and the European Council, the two parties recognized the need for a new start in their relationship and greater collaboration. Even in Europe, politicians who were previously more Bellicians towards China, including Ursula von der Leyen, now report a greater openness to cooperation in the growing uncertainties of the future of Europe. Given the prices imposed by the United States on the EU and China, economic cooperation, namely the increase in trade, China can become the main area of cooperation.
Cooperation with China could also serve as a strategic lever for Europe, pressure on the United States to reconsider its level of engagement. Although Washington is not as focused on Europe as in the past, a Europe approaching China would be far from desirable for American security interests, as this would limit the global influence of the United States more. Collaboration could become a negotiation program for Europe in its efforts to keep the United States in the security of the continent.
The level of cooperation in China-Europe will be determined by several factors. One of them is the end of the war in Ukraine. If it is likely that distrust between the United States and Russia will remain to a certain extent, if the end of the war in Ukraine leads to closer cooperation between Russia and the United States, this will make China and Europe less safe. Europe will see Russia embraced, and China will lose control of an ally and neighbor. This can potentially lead to less safe Europe, more aggressive China and higher levels of cooperation between the two, potentially beyond long-term economic cooperation.
European states will have to navigate this chaotic period with caution. Given the current vulnerabilities of Europe, the temptation to accept mutually beneficial agreements of any voluntary partner is understandable. However, the main risk is that such agreements can lead to excessive dependence on China. This risk is real – Europe faces an aging population, fragmented financial markets, limited investment opportunities and a lack of independent energy sources. The current crisis has exposed deeper structural weaknesses, and excessive exploitation of China would only provide a temporary solution.
Instead, this moment can also serve as alarm clock to European states in order to improve their competitiveness in key areas such as economy, sustainable energy, artificial intelligence, industry and defense, because more in -depth cooperation in these fields with China could pose national security risks. Another critical concern is that as one of the last bastions of an order based on rules, Europe can become less vigilant to maintain international law if it develops too much in China.
Another approach may be to find different partners to diversify partnerships as much as possible. Very diverse partnerships can prevent European states from depending on one or two major powers. The recent meeting between EU leaders and the leaders of the leaders of Central Asia, the recently signed strategic partnership between France and Uzbekistan, the trip to Armenia and Azerbaijan by the president of Germany, and Turkey’s inclusion in European security discussions sign that Europeans are already looking for new partnerships. However, this will never replace the increase in the capacity of the interior, because a Europe without sufficient capacity will always be affected by geopolitical changes.
Europe must engage with global partners, including China on global challenges because they require international cooperation. However, as the current situation demonstrates, over-dependence on a single actor will leave Europe vulnerable to external pressures. The key is strategic autonomy and a balanced approach to world partnerships.
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