May 3 will be a decisive moment for Australia, because he organized the federal elections which will determine if Anthony Albanese and the Labor Party continue to preserve power, or if Peter Dutton and the national liberal coalition take over. Australia occupies a special position as the first anase dialogue partner, making this election particularly remarkable for the countries of the Anase. When observing the Australian elections, the Anase countries generally observe from afar, adhering to their principle of non-interference. However, observation from afar does not mean being without certain expectations. Whatever the result of the elections, ASEAN should expect a more progressive partnership with Australia, in particular to ensure the stability of Indo-Pacific and resilience against global challenges.
Today, the world faces 10% of universal rates imposed by US President Donald Trump. In addition to that, there are also the so-called “reciprocal prices”, which are much higher-although they were temporarily interrupted for 90 days, with the exception of China. Speaking of China, the world has to face the disastrous consequences of the worsening of the American-Chinese trade war in the past two months. Since the beginning of 2025, the two countries have imposed a series of increasing rates, including the rate of 145% of the United States on Chinese products and the 125% price of China on American products. This situation is likely to provoke an economic uncertainty for the Anase, a regional group made up of developing countries that need stability in a critical way to promote their trade and their investment.
Malaysia, as president of the Anase this year, tried to direct a unified response from Anase to this particular world situation. This includes the initiative to make a telephone call with regional leaders from Brunei, Indonesia, the Philippines and Singapore to coordinate a mutual response, immediately after Trump’s announcement of “reciprocal prices” on April 5, 2025. Malaysia aims to present a united regional front to guarantee that the collective voice of ASEAN is heard on the international scene. Hopefully this voice will also resonate with Australia.
In the light of this global economic challenge, the countries of the Anase are likely to reduce their dependence on the American market and to seek to stimulate trade with other strategic partners. Australia must take this urgent shared problem as an opportunity to strengthen its links with the Anase and to diversify its markets. Last February, Australia ratified the agreement of the free trade area of Asean-Australia-Australia-New Zealand. Among other things, this agreement aims to help micro, small and medium -sized businesses to benefit from trade within the Anase. This could serve as significant hope for the Anase to anticipate and alleviate the potential impact of prolonged global economic crises.
Aside from the geographic characteristics, Australia and the countries of the Anase are distinguished in their stories, identities, demographic data and cultures. These differences naturally shape their political priorities and the attitudes of their respective politicians, including the way in which they perceive global policy and Indo-Pacific. While the Anase places the mechanisms of dialogue with the cornerstone of the achievement of consensus without creating formal alliances, Australia has historically focused on alliances. It was a famous quote from former Prime Minister Robert Menzies: “Our big and powerful friends” who reflect the alliance of Australia with the United States, while maintaining links with Great Britain.
However, these divergent approaches did not hamper the Asean-Australia partnership. Even today, maintaining stability in Indo-Pacific must become more crucial in the radical prices imposed by the United States. Australia and Anase are aware that they have no choice but to make the most of their differences. And that’s what they have done so far. Australia established a complete strategic partnership with ASEAN in 2021. ASEAN is a vital trading partner for Australia, with bidirectional trade amounting to 192.9 billion dollars during the year 2023-2024. Last year, the creation of the center of Asean-Australia in Canberra marked another step, promoting the links between teachers and students in the region.
ASEAN understands that the Indo-Pacific strategy of Australia often focuses on the influence of China through strategic partnerships. Meanwhile, ASEAN’s prospects on Indo-Pacific (AOIP) define its own strategy. AOIP aims to promote a peaceful, stable and prosperous region with the Anase at the base of the driving force. ASEAN avoids being trained in rivalry among the great powers. Instead, Anase welcomes all partners to contribute to regional peace and stability.
Navigation of partnerships with the Anase is not a simple task. Australia has long been uncertain of the dynamic position of the countries of the Anase towards China, but this dynamic is intrinsic to the nature of the Anase. Consequently, rather than fixing the fluctuating relations of the Anase with China, Australia should focus on the fortification of its own partnership with Anase. With the growing influence of China, the Anase must assert its constructive position towards Australia. At the same time, incidents such as Aukus training in 2021, which caught the Asean nations by surprise, should not be repeated.
While Australia has the right to join the “minilalatérals”, the sudden movements are still undesirable – even by Australia itself. Rumors suggesting that Russia sought to base military planes in Indonesia apparently surprised Australia by surprise, which even led Peter Dutton to make an inaccurate affirmation. Indeed, Indonesia has denied rumors, but it serves as an important lesson for Australia. ASEAN needs to ensure that Australia is a real partner, not a proxy for great powers. As former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has urged, Australia must “defend Australia” and approach its relations with the United States as transactional as the United States does with Australia.
In short, Anase needs Australia as much as Australia needs anase. The winner of the next Australian elections should avoid Trump type behavior and consider coexistence with the Anase as close neighbors, protecting regional stability. Without Anase, Australia is likely to be drifting in Indo-Pacific.
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