On October 26, 2024, Georgia held parliamentary elections. This election was crucial for democracy, as Georgian citizens had to choose between aligning with the European Union or with Russia. The outcome also defines whether Georgia wishes to become a true democracy, fully integrated into Euro-Atlantic structures, or whether it wishes to remain a hybrid political regime vulnerable to Russian influence. Moldova experienced a similar development, where almost 1% of the votes ensured its European choice despite Russian interference against its pro-European leadership.
Although the Georgian Central Election Commission announced the Georgian Dream as the winner with approximately 54% of the votes received, Georgia’s parliamentary elections face serious legitimacy problems for several reasons. First, electronic constituency reports showed a clear advantage for the United Opposition, and the results of pre-election and exit polls conducted by Edison Research, SAVANTA and GORBI differed from those announced by the Central Election Commission. Second, independent election observers were not allowed to carry out their duties and were not adequately represented, while almost all election commissions were staffed primarily by members and observers sympathetic to the ruling Georgian Dream. Third, international observers have critically assessed the elections, and U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken has spoken out about the unfair pre-election environment and the resulting unfair election results. Fourth, Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili and opposition parties do not recognize the election results. These circumstances undermine the legitimacy of the elections.
Political scientists distinguish three phases: the pre-election, election day and post-election stages. This division is important for assessing the fairness and freedom of elections. Freedom implies freedom from coercion and intimidation, while fairness implies equal treatment of all political matters during these three phases. The ruling party, Georgian Dream, began violating both criteria already in the pre-election period by adopting the Georgian Law on Transparency of Foreign Influences, aimed at undermining and limiting the freedom of civil society and the media.
As a result, local nongovernmental organizations and independent observers were prevented from preparing to collect evidence of election violations, and donors were discouraged from supporting these organizations. Other authoritarian tendencies have also been observed in an attempt to limit academic freedoms. In October 2024, the National Center for Educational Quality Improvement of Georgia arbitrarily denied full authorization to Ilia State University, a leading research university, because its students played a leading role in the May protests against the foreign agents law and supported the Europeanization of Georgia. Without full authorization, the University will not be able to admit students and operate properly.
Ruling political elites have appealed to pseudo-conservative values to win the support of conservative voters. Bidzina Ivanishvili, founder and honorary president of Georgian Dream, expressed her grievances related to domestic and foreign policy issues in an interview with a pro-government journalist. Its clumsy narratives echo Russian-style conspiracy theories, cleverly using war stories to frighten a nation that has repeatedly experienced Russian-orchestrated ethnic cleansing and aggression.
Most strikingly, Ivanishvili blames former Georgian President Saakashvili, currently imprisoned for abuse of power and embezzlement, and the West for starting the August 2008 war, while downplaying Russia’s role. He coined a new term, “the World War Party”, describing a so-called global force, made up of the most hawkish Western actors, aimed at preventing the integration of Georgia and Ukraine into the EU and NATO, and to drag Georgia into the war to open the “second front”. “. Additionally, Ivanishvili discussed banning LGBTQ+ propaganda and holding opposition-aligned political forces legally accountable. He promised voters better choices and new opposition parties in the next election. In this sense, he takes up the logic of an authoritarian leader, who cultivates a pseudo-opposition in order to create the illusion of democratic processes.
Ivanishvili also discussed the freezing of his assets in the context of US-Georgian strategic relations. He appeared to put his personal interest ahead of Georgia’s national interests by blocking strategic partnerships with the United States. His recent appearances with bulletproof glass at the party’s pre-election rallies suggest he has security concerns. Ivanishvili’s pre-election campaign was heavily marked by labeling opposition parties as traitors and Western foreign agents and accusing them of pursuing “liberal fascism”. He also advocated for balancing relations with Russia amid the Russo-Ukrainian war in order to contain its spread. Ivanishvili understands the electoral costs of the anti-European stance and insists on Georgia’s eventual accession to the European Union, despite the EU ambassador’s announcement suspending the integration process.
In response to these accusations, the main opposition parties have grouped together under four main forces: Strong Georgia, Ahali, United National Movement and For Georgia. These opposition groups and coalitions agreed to rally around President Zurabishvili’s “Georgian Charter” and promised democratic reforms, including the abolition of all laws incompatible with European integration, reform of the courts and the amending electoral laws to ensure equal political representation and electoral integrity. Civil society organizations also mobilized local observation missions to support electoral processes and enable a democratic outcome.
On October 20, 2024, civil society organizations and activists organized pro-European rallies and opposition parties met under the leadership of the President. The President also suggested appointing a neutral and apolitical prime minister after the elections to facilitate the process of coalition building and cooperation between politically diverse forces. It is also worth noting the self-organization of Georgians, who willingly support the future of their country within the European Union. Similarly, on October 23, 2024, Georgian Dream organized a campaign rally attended primarily by public sector employees, many of whom were allegedly unwittingly pressured to participate under threat of loss of jobs or working conditions degraded. Georgian Dream recruited Olympic gold medal-winning athletes and presented a predominantly male electoral list, claiming it would get 60% of the vote. Usually, democracy involves uncertainty and no leader or political force can with certainty claim electoral victory until the election results are announced. Nevertheless, Georgian Dream leaders made such claims in advance and showed sympathy for conservative figures in the United States and Europe. Perhaps this is why they are supporting Donald Trump as a candidate for the presidency of the United States and echoing his thoughts on the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Despite difficult geopolitical conditions, electoral environment and contradictory discourses aimed at mutual accusations, Georgian citizens can conquer democracy and have the opportunity to defend their European future, because the EU has made it clear that the current Georgian government does not is not capable of leading the country. . Conversely, the Georgian Dream government has adopted laws that go against European and democratic values and which put the legitimacy of the 2024 legislative elections at stake. Moreover, with 89 mandates in parliament and a boycott of opposition, the Electoral College will not be able to choose a new president (article 5) since it must include all members of parliament. The Georgian dream is at the origin of this political crisis.
What gives a glimpse of Georgia’s hope for a democratic victory? Despite the criticism, the Georgian opposition has strategically regrouped and united around President Zurabishvili. The Georgian Dream has excessive financial and administrative resources and media ownership to strengthen its propaganda networks and narratives. Nevertheless, the United States and the EU stand with the Georgian people and the pro-Western opposition to strengthen the democratic choices of Georgian citizens. This international support can be an important leverage factor for Ivanishvili.
Georgia does not have the resources or capacity to consistently finance and execute authoritarian repressions, such as those seen in Belarus or Russia. Furthermore, it is difficult and counterproductive to sever all ties with the West, forged over the years and by different governments. The Constitutional Court of Georgia declared the constitutional complaint against Georgia’s law on transparency of foreign influences admissible, although it hesitated to suspend the law. Given these factors, Georgia is less likely to slide into authoritarianism; rather, it is more likely to learn to become a better democracy and practice coalition government.
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