Islamabad: Pakistan has finalized its National Economic Transformation Plan (2024-2029), which aims to position the economy at $1 trillion by 2035. The blueprint, developed by the Ministry of Planning, sets ambitious goals, including reducing poverty and increasing literacy rates. Reading and writing, IT exports will be greatly enhanced. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is expected to unveil the plan soon. However, implementing these goals faces obstacles, particularly due to the restrictive social media firewall imposed by the government.
Replacing a previous strategy pioneered by UK-based economist Stefan Dercon, which failed to gain traction, the new plan sets out a more comprehensive framework. Despite this shift, some officials are calling for the two documents to be released simultaneously, noting that significant resources have been invested in promoting Dercon’s financial strategy. Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal stressed the need for a long-term vision and urged Pakistan to set its economic path for 2047, the country’s centenary year. The Minister described the 5Es framework as a strategic document, complementary to the financial roadmap proposed by Dercon.
A critical focus of the plan is the growth of Pakistan’s IT and independent exports, with a target of reaching $5 billion by 2029. Broader export targets are set at $60 billion over the same time frame. The strategy includes producing 75,000 IT graduates annually, expanding broadband to 135 million subscriptions, and establishing more than 100 software technology parks. The plan also includes creating the first unicorn company in Pakistan, with a market value of $1 billion, and achieving a 178% increase in IT exports.
However, these goals conflict with the restrictive social media firewall, which was implemented to counter anti-government propaganda. Critics argue that this measure hinders the growth of ICT and digital communication in Pakistan. Daniel Castro, vice president of the US-based Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, stressed that such policies undermine economic progress, because unfettered digital access is essential to foster a competitive digital economy.
The plan sets a compound annual growth rate of 9.8%, and expects to reach $1 trillion by 2035. It also seeks to increase the share of renewable energy to more than 10%, eliminate circular debt, and reduce subsidies to stabilize the energy sector. The share of freight transport via rail is expected to rise from 8% to 25%, thanks to the $7 billion First Main Line Initiative under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. In addition, the plan includes commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50% and address water scarcity to alleviate food insecurity.
In the social sector, the plan promises to provide 1.5 million job opportunities annually, enhance health coverage by 12%, and improve primary and secondary education completion rates to 28% and 43%, respectively. The program aims to raise the literacy rate to 70% within five years, which represents a long-term challenge in the country.
Despite its ambitions, the plan acknowledges significant obstacles, including stagnant growth, declining productivity, outdated industrial practices, and climate vulnerabilities. The Ministry of Planning stresses the need to shift from a “security state” to a democratic, rules-based society to unleash Pakistan’s potential.
The five-year plan will serve as a unified framework for government ministries and regional authorities, to align efforts to make Pakistan one of the world’s ten largest economies by 2047. However, achieving these ambitious goals hinges on overcoming policy constraints and strengthening infrastructure, especially in the IT and digital sectors. .