Given the prevailing perception of Iran’s Islamic regime as the most immediate threat to American national security, Trump’s return to the presidency in January 2025 could have profound consequences for the ruling mullahs’ regime. Despite its reckless and disruptive behavior and its military maneuvers intended to showcase its military might and impress its perceived enemies, it can be argued that the Islamic regime is inclined to act rationally when it perceives a threat to its political survival. The regime’s political pragmatism, manifested in its propensity to make temporary political concessions, is conducive to preventing and deflecting any planned American threats against its political existence.
Several compelling signs point to the pulverizing and debilitating pressure that the new Trump administration will exert on the Islamic Republic of Iran. First, as he prepared to hand over power to the Republic’s new administration, President Biden warned President-elect Trump that Iran posed the most imminent danger to American national security. Second, the alleged Islamic regime-sponsored assassination attempt on Trump led federal prosecutors to indict an operative of the Islamic regime for plotting revenge for the killing of Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force (the Islamic regime’s wing). elite of the Iranian Islamic movement). Revolutionary Guards) January 3rd2020. Third, US intelligence has identified Iran’s Islamic regime as a disruptive culprit funneling money and other logistical support to anti-Israel protests on US college campuses. Fourth, based on the alarming report of the International Atomic Energy Agency released on October 26, 2024, the Islamic regime has increased its stocks of weapons-grade uranium, which demonstrates Iran’s complete disregard for international demands to curb its nuclear program.
Finally, During Trump’s first term, European powers were not only reluctant to support U.S. sanctions against Iran, but also assiduously attempted to develop a strategy known as the Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges (INSTEX). to circumvent and circumvent US sanctions. However, with the military cooperation between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Russia in its aggression against Ukraine, European powers not only reconsidered their ineffective appeasement policy towards Iran, but also resorted to imposition of restrictive measures on the Islamic regime. It is therefore logical to extrapolate that the European Union will to a large extent accept the radical economic and political measures of the new Trump administration against the Islamic regime.
There is no doubt that Iran will play an important role in the foreign policy of the new Trump administration. Given the ongoing bloody war between Israel and the Islamic regime’s proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iraq, which has culminated in a confrontation between Israel and Iran, the Islamic regime’s threat landscape appears noticeably different heading into 2025 than it was in 2017, when Trump first took power. desk. There are signs of the new Trump administration’s aggressive and brutal approach towards the Islamic Republic of Iran. President-elect Trump is building one of the most pro-Israel cabinets in American history. Some of the president-elect’s pro-Israel and hawkish nominees, such as Senator Marc Rubio (Trump’s nominee for secretary of state), Representative Mik Waltz (Trump’s choice for national security adviser), Representative Elise Stefanik (candidate for U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations), Mike Huckabee (candidate for Ambassador to Israel), Steve Witkoff (U.S. Special Envoy in the Middle East) and Pete Hegseth, Fox News host and Army veteran. (candidate for Secretary of Defense) have made clear in the past their tough stance against the Islamic regime in Iran. Although Trump will set the general tone of the new US administration’s foreign policy, these Iran hawks can to a large extent influence and shape Trump’s stance towards the Islamic regime.
Furthermore, the information disclosed by the new Trump administration demonstrates President-elect Trump’s firm determination to revive and intensify the maximum pressure strategy aimed at emasculating and bankrupting the Islamic regime’s ability to finance regional proxies and develop nuclear weapons. Finally, it is claimed that members of the president-elect’s team have already begun to consider developing plans to erode the pillars of Islamic rule, the aim of which is to overthrow the religious rulers in Iran. Accordingly, dismantling the current theocratic power structure in Iran claims to be a lasting solution to effectively ending the Islamic regime’s nuclear programs, stifling funding for regime-sponsored militant groups and organizations, and thereby stabilizing the region.
Following Trump’s election victory, factions within the Islamic regime have expressed divergent opinions on how to handle what they believe to be an unstable and dangerous period for Iran. While some politicians are pushing for negotiations, some hardliners are calling for caution and emphasizing resilience. The regime appears to have been faced with a situation in which no available choices are attractive. Resisting and challenging the new Trump administration’s expectations of Iran to dismantle its nuclear weapons program and end its support for regional proxies will be met with stifling sanctions that may deprive the regime of oil revenues. Given Trump’s stated support for Israel and the recent condemnation of Iran by the UN Nuclear Agency, this option may encourage and justify Israeli attacks on the country’s vital military and revenue-generating infrastructure and installations. ‘Iran.
Despite their reckless and destabilizing behaviors, religious leaders have proven to be rational whenever they perceive an imminent threat to regime survival. Ayatollah Khomeini, founder of the Islamic regime in 1979, was known for his stubborn and uncompromising stance on the continuation of the war with Iraq in the 1980s. However, when he was informed of a military defeat on the battlefield that could have jeopardized the very survival of the Islamic regime, he gave in and accepted peace with Iraq, which he described as taking poison.
In order to deflect the perceived threat to its political existence, the Islamic Republic of Iran has already indicated its readiness to enter into negotiations with the new Trump administration and make temporary concessions. After receiving a stern warning from the current US administration, the Islamic regime reportedly sent a written guarantee that it would not seek to assassinate Trump. To ease tensions with the new administration, Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations reportedly held a secret meeting with Elon Musk, whom President-elect Trump named one of the heads of the new Department of Government Effectiveness. On November 16, 2024, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi publicly expressed Iran’s willingness to resume negotiations on its controversial nuclear program. Finally, Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian stressed Iran’s desire to improve its relations with the West.
With the return of Donald Trump to the White House, the Islamic Republic of Iran finds itself at a crossroads. Challenging the new U.S. administration’s demands to end uranium enrichment and regional interference will inevitably trigger maximum economic, political, and military pressure from the United States, including debilitating enforcement oil sanctions that can drain government coffers. Given the virtual destruction of the Islamic regime’s network of regional relations allies due to Israeli military strikes that have diminished Iran’s deterrence capacity, and given the high level of Iranian discontent with the regime, which has the potential to result in real political conflict. With the advent of war with Israel, religious leaders are poised to fall back into rationality and, reluctantly, push for temporary concessions to deflect the looming threat to their survival. For Iran, giving in to the Trump administration’s demands could be a logical step to avoid falling into the impending precipice.
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