This holiday season, Syria has more reasons than ever to celebrate. An alliance of armed groups, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), ended Syrian rule in a bloodless campaign that lasted about 10 days. Since then, Syrians from all walks of life, at home and in exile, have rejoiced at the fall of the Assad dynasty. This monumental event appears like a gift from heaven, bringing hope, but also uncertainty and apprehension. The international community should seize this opportunity to support Syria’s recovery. Alongside increased humanitarian aid and support for reconstruction efforts, the lifting and easing of sanctions is essential at this stage.
Amid the national euphoria, tempered by the grim images emerging from the tyrant’s dungeons, the agony of the last 13 years takes a back seat to optimism and celebration. However, the festive wave sweeping the country does not change the harsh reality: Syria is in ruins. Human suffering has made Syria one of the worst humanitarian crises since World War II. Since the start of the conflict, the country has witnessed unprecedented destruction of its infrastructure, human capital and economy. While the tyranny and corruption of the Assad regime are largely to blame, internationally coordinated economic warfare in the form of sanctions has also played a significant role.
When the conflict broke out in 2011, Syria was hit by several rounds of (Western) sanctions. By 2024, Syria had become the third most sanctioned country in the world, after Russia and Iran. US sanctions evolved into a full trade embargo, while the EU imposed sanctions unprecedented in the bloc’s history at the time they were imposed. The Arab League and other entities and countries followed suit. These measures collectively formed one of the “strictest and most complex collective regimes in recent history” or one of the “most complicated and extensive sanctions regimes ever imposed.” Although the sanctions include humanitarian exemptions, these have had limited impact and have not achieved their objectives. The situation is further complicated by the presence of terrorist organizations in the country, subject to United Nations Security Council resolutions.
Although the effectiveness of sanctions and their role in bringing down the regime will be debated for years, one thing is clear: sanctions have imposed significant costs and negative effects on civilians. As previously noted, sanctions constitute a form of violence in the Syrian context. They have had a negative impact on, among other things, food security, agriculture, humanitarian response and access to health care, medicines and water. During the COVID-19 outbreak and in the aftermath of the 2023 earthquake, sanctions hampered the work of first responders and rescue operations. Politically, sanctions have weakened state coffers, empowered the kleptocratic clique around Assad while wreaking havoc on small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) and impoverishing ordinary Syrians.
Despite their harmful consequences, sanctions were justified as tools to minimize harm to civilians and promote political transition. Policymakers argued that the sanctions were a response to the Syrian government’s repression of civilians during the uprising, a punishment for human rights violations, and a way to deprive the government of the resources needed to inflict violence . With the fall of the Assad family, these justifications no longer hold. Even if Assad and his clique must remain on the sanctions list, sectoral sanctions targeting, among other things, the Syrian banking and energy systems, as well as reconstruction efforts, must be eased and lifted immediately. Failure to act in this way can have disastrous consequences and delays could be detrimental to peace, stability and the humanitarian situation in Syria, and there are many lessons to be learned from countries like Colombia, Sudan and Afghanistan .
The first challenge in Syria after Assad’s fall may soon come when the country will have to import wheat to feed its population. Until recently, Russia provided Syria with the grain it needed, but this is no longer the case and although Ukraine has offered to fill the void, many ambiguities remain as to how this happens. will materialize. Another challenge concerns the importation of fuel, necessary to generate electricity, operate bakeries and run schools. Previously, Iran was Syria’s fuel supplier, but this is no longer the case. Under current sanctions regimes, and as previous research shows, it is virtually impossible to obtain these goods through international tenders, underscoring the need to end the complex tangle sanctions, export controls and other comprehensive legal and economic measures targeting the country, and which present a range of serious legal and political obstacles to engagement with post-Assad Syria if left unchecked. is made to resolve them.
Opponents could argue that Syria’s new leaders – HTS, a heavily sanctioned terrorist organization – are untrustworthy and that the lifting/easing of sanctions should depend on their cooperation with the internationally recognized opposition. This argument has merit and the author shows no (secret) sympathy for the new Syrian leaders. HTS, a former al-Qaeda affiliate led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, better known as “Abu Muhammad al-Julani”, was confined until the end of November in the Idlib region in the north. western Syria, where the group led the HTS-controlled Syrian Salvation. Government (SSG).
Although HTS’s track record and affiliations are a legitimate cause for concern, this should not be an excuse to maintain sanctions against Syria. Years ago, HTS renounced its ties to al-Qaeda and turned away from the latter’s mission to focus instead on Syria. Today, HTS has taken a pragmatic approach, sending positive signals to Syrians and the international community. Given its central role in recent events and its dominance over other opposition groups, HTS has assumed responsibility for forming a new government in Damascus.
A transitional government led by SSG Muhammad al-Bashir was recently appointed and is expected to last until the formation of a new government in March 2025. The group has granted amnesties to conscripted soldiers, called for employees of the State to return to work and has contacted foreign entities, including embassies, the UN and international humanitarian NGOs. Acts of vengeance against former regime affiliates have been rare, and the group has maintained order throughout the country, with few exceptions. Their message is clear: Syria belongs to all Syrians and the plan is to establish an inclusive government. Former regime affiliates only have to worry if they have blood on their hands. Only time will tell, but these measures have already allowed life in Syria to return to some degree of normality, with businesses, NGOs and embassies (considering) reopening their doors.
Given the positive signals coming from Damascus, a better approach would be to acknowledge concerns about Syria’s new leaders, monitor their commitment to the inclusiveness of political processes and the aspirations of the Syrian people, and act only they move away. It is unjust to keep Syrians imprisoned by sanctions for fear of HTS. These are perilous and crucial times for Syria’s 16.7 million people, many of whom need humanitarian assistance – the highest number since the crisis began in 2011. Nothing, including sanctions , should not hinder Syria’s recovery and the political calculations of international actors should not come into play.
Further reading on international electronic relations