The blue anthropomorphic speed demon is expected to overtake the future king of the Pride Lands at the box office this weekend.
Paramount’s “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” is expected to earn between $55 million and $60 million from 3,800 North American theaters in its debut, while “Mufasa: The Lion King.” Produced by Disney, it is expected to gross $50 million from more than 4,000 theaters. “Sonic” won’t open at the international box office until Christmas Day, so “Mufasa” will have free rein to dominate the global charts. The “Lion King” prequel is poised to add an additional $130 million overseas to a promising $180 million global debut.
Neither film is expected to break opening-weekend records (in fact, “Sonic” is on track for a lowly hat-trick), but that’s to be expected. December releases aren’t known for having strong debuts, but if reviews and word of mouth are favorable, you could enjoy staying strong into January and beyond. For example, “Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle” launched with just $36 million in 2017, but ended up grossing a whopping $404 million domestically and $962 million worldwide. Last December, the movie “Wonka” achieved good revenues of $39 million at first, then achieved $218 million in North America and $634 million worldwide.
Theater owners are hoping that’s the case because the Christmas season could be more muted without a guaranteed billion-dollar blockbuster, along the lines of “Avatar: The Way of Water” or “Spider-Man: No Way Home,” to close out 2024. Universal’s “Wicked,” Disney’s “Moana 2” and Paramount’s “Gladiator II,” all of which opened in November, should continue to entice viewers around the holidays and help… Downsizing year so far. Impotence. Total domestic ticket sales are 4.8% behind in 2023 and 23% behind in 2019, according to Comscore.
Jeff Fowler returns to direct “Sonic the Hedgehog 3,” with Ben Schwartz returning as the voice of the title character, a speedy blue creature with a knack for taking down bad guys, and Jim Carrey reprising his role as Sonic’s enemy Dr. Robotnik., A mad scientist obsessed with achieving world domination. In the $122 million-budgeted trilogy, Sonic teams up with his buddies Tails and Knuckles to stop a mysterious new adversary, Shadow the Hedgehog. But – in a plot twist – the trio is forced to form an unlikely alliance with Dr. Robotnik to protect the planet. The original 2020 “Sonic the Hedgehog” film was a surprise hit, launching to $58 million before amassing combined totals of $148 million domestically and $319 million worldwide — setting a record at the time for the highest-grossing video game adaptation in North America. The 2022 sequel was even bigger, opening with $72 million at the domestic box office and reaching $405 million globally. Despite a potentially weak start compared to its predecessors, “Sonic 3” could double over the holidays and end its theatrical run as the group’s biggest grosser.
Barry Jenkins, the Oscar-winning director of Moonlight and If Beale Street Could Talk, directed Mufasa, a look at the formative years of the eventual ruler of the Pride Lands. The film serves as a prequel to the 2019 photorealistic remake of “The Lion King” from director Jon Favreau. Despite mixed reviews, the film grossed an impressive $191 million over the summer and eventually grossed $1.66 billion at the global box office.
“Mufasa” features music by Lin-Manuel Miranda of “Hamilton,” “Encanto” and “Moana” fame, as well as a voice cast led by Aaron Bier and Kelvin Harrison Jr. as the younger version of Mufasa (voiced by James Earle). Jones in the 2019 remake) and his evil brother Scar (voiced by Chiwetel Ejiofor in the 2019 remake). Donald Glover, Seth Rogen, Billy Eichner, Beyoncé Knowles-Carter, Mads Mikkelsen and Blue Ivy Carter complete the star-studded ensemble. The prequel carries a massive $200 million budget, so Disney needs “Mufasa” to be the main cinematic event of the new year to justify that price tag and continue the studio’s hot streak of “Inside Out 2” and “Deadpool & Wolverine.” And “Moana 2”.
Although “Sonic” should rank high on the domestic box office charts, “Mufasa” may have to wait to become king.