Africa has experienced a period of change with Namibia choosing its first female president, Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah. Namibia has elected both a new president and a more diverse National Assembly in the country’s seventh elections since its independence from South Africa in 1990. Originally scheduled for November 27, 2024, in some regions the elections will take place are held until November 30 due to poor planning. Opposition parties decried the move, boycotting the declaration and challenging the elections in court. This discontent has (however) begun to subside, given widespread respect for the Electoral Commission of Namibia (ECN) and the disappointing performance of the ruling SWAPO party. Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah of the ruling SWAPO party was declared the winner and Namibia’s first female president. Yet the Assembly elections saw SWAPO reduced to 51 seats, a majority of three. SWAPO, which gained its base fighting against apartheid in 1990, has not recently attracted young Namibian voters unhappy with high unemployment.
An ECN spokesperson advised me:
We are caught in a dilemma. We have the respect of many from all parties, but we run elections based on modern technology that does not work well in our country. We know it was a disaster in 2019 when the machines failed us. We recovered something from the technical sheets there. We had to delay elections in some regions until November 30. We still face the challenge of organizing modern, Western-style elections when the IT is simply not ready. If you fail, people are naturally suspicious… It’s a challenge.
Ahead of the election, online disinformation campaigns targeted various candidates. These included false allegations such as Panduleni Itula being a “British agent”; alleged images of another opposition candidate, Bernadus Swartbooi, making tribalist statements against Itula; and the mockery of the president-elect. Various politicians have also accused Zimbabwe’s ZANU-PF of spreading false information.
A SWAPO spokesperson explained:
We view this election as both a victory in crowning our party’s first female president, but also as a sign that we must work harder to make this country better, improve the economy, create jobs, attract investments, and increase prosperity…. We know SWAPO can’t capitalize on the nostalgia of 1989, but we know Netumbo will make this country great again…and better times are ahead for everyone.
I first arrived in Namibia in 1989 as part of the United Nations Mission (UNTAG) established to help the country transition to independence. I observed a previous post-independence election (2019) and returned for the November 2024 elections. Post-1989 was a period of great change as the new government implemented policies that were both fair and progressive. This path to reform has been blunted over the past decade by political intransigence and incestuous party infighting. It was dramatic to return before the Covid epidemic, and the pace of reforms between UNTAG and 2019 was infinitely better than today. Before UNTAG, there was a position known as the United Nations Commissioner for Namibia (formerly the United Nations Commissioner for South West Africa). The UNGA renamed the position of United Nations Commissioner for Namibia in 1968 and Namibia gained independence on March 21, 1990. Of the seven United Nations commissioners (all of whom were denied status by South Africa South) were the Irishman Seán MacBride and the Finnish Martti Ahtisaari who, in April 1989, led the effective decolonization of Namibia by UNTAG.
In the November 1989 elections, 98% of registered voters turned out to vote. The elections were certified free and fair by the UN Special Representative, with SWAPO receiving 57% of the vote, just under a two-thirds majority. The opposition Turnhalle Democratic Alliance received 29% of the vote. While Namibia is a multi-party democracy, the South West Africa People’s Organization (SWAPO) has governed since independence and the 2024 elections show every evidence of popular discontent with their party hacks.
Today, there are many areas of dissatisfaction, including chronic poverty and high unemployment. Although civil liberties protections are generally strong, ethnic minority groups accuse the government of favoring the majority Ovambo ethnic group in the allocation of services. The nomadic San people experience extreme poverty and societal marginalization. Other human rights concerns include police brutality and discrimination against women and LGBT+ people. In 2019, the late Hage Geingob of SWAPO was re-elected president with 56.3% of the vote. Although international observers deemed the vote peaceful and the results credible, concerns were raised about electronic voting machines, long wait times to vote, and delays in counting and publishing results. By 2024, these concerns have been (largely) addressed by the NEC, but SWAPO’s vote has fallen further.
The 2024 and 2019 polls were both declared fair by international observers, although concerns were raised about other aspects of the process. Controversy around the use of electronic machines dominated the 2019 election, and the replacement of paper ballots in 2024 largely addressed this concern. In 2024, the greater plurality of minority interests has further shaken SWAPO’s historic dominance. In particular, opposition parties now control the key towns of Windhoek, Walvis Bay and Swakopmund. Although the common view is that this trend reflects SWAPO’s declining popularity and concerns over growing favoritism, these more competitive outcomes also reflect the natural evolution of a healthy multi-party system. Namibia’s opposition parties, many of which are spinoffs of SWAPO, remain relatively weak and underfunded. They have nevertheless strengthened their capacities and their organizational reach. Moreover, the political system is evolving with an increasing share of urban and young voters after independence. Their attitude towards SWAPO and its liberation credentials comes into conflict with the older generation of Namibians.
Namibia’s increasingly competitive multi-party system offers a chance for innovation and democratic self-correction, creating incentives for all parties to demonstrate good governance. These developments could help Namibia shake off the flaws of a well-established and often corrupt dominant party system. The 2024 electoral environment supported freedom of assembly and expression overseen by the ECN, which is widely considered impartial. The Namibian justice system is independent of political influence. Additionally, Namibia is one of the most open environments in Africa when it comes to press freedom, contributing to government accountability.
The 2014 elections are likely to consolidate previous gains in equality, with a significant impact on Namibian civil society. The Supreme Court of Namibia has granted foreign spouses of Namibians in same-sex marriages the same immigration rights as foreign spouses in heterosexual marriages. The decision sparked an anti-LGBT+ backlash. Parliament then passed a law banning the recognition of same-sex marriages and explicitly overturning the Supreme Court’s decision. It is likely that the new president will impose a more liberal equality agenda. Namibia is committed to encouraging greater equal rights, political pluralism and broader societal participation at local government levels. A Netumbo supporter reiterated to me that the president-elect sincerely wishes to guarantee all Namibians “the right to organize in different political parties or other competitive political groupings of their choosing, in a political system free from undue obstacles…”
These are objectives to which several international human rights organizations, including the UN, aspire. There are, however, inherent problems with the system that Netumbo inherits. Although Namibian political parties can form and operate freely and registration requirements are not onerous, candidate registration fees and campaign financing still impose an excessive burden on small parties. Parties that hold parliamentary seats receive annual public support based on parliamentary representation, which continues to disproportionately benefit SWAPO. Small parties lack financial resources or national membership bases, hampering their ability to mobilize support.
It remains to be seen how the new president will be able to reconcile the threats of her own SWAPO colleagues. She has expressed a desire to change the system, allowing the opposition to increase its financial support, but her own enemies in SWAPO will have a tough time on this. Minority parties, historically considered weak and fragmented, surged significantly in the November 2020 local elections and are poised to perform well in upcoming provincial-level polls. While the opposition has dislodged SWAPO from the two-thirds majority it had held since 2014, President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah cannot appear weak in appeasing minorities, and must also maintain SWAPO’s core support to retain power.
Further reading on international electronic relations