The new year begins with another development in the war between Ukraine and Russia, the gas war in Europe. Before Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia was the EU’s largest supplier of natural gas. The EU (and to a lesser extent the wider European bloc) has thus reduced Russia’s share of imports from more than 40% in 2021 to 8% in 2023, according to the European Council. To close the energy gap, Europe has imported more liquefied natural gas (LNG) – by tanker – from the United States and other countries, as well as gas by pipeline from countries like Norway. The EU has also stepped up temporary imports of Russian LNG, but has set a self-imposed deadline of 2027 and is considering phasing out all Russian fossil fuels.
As Ukraine has been the victim of much of Putin’s energy attacks, it has forced kyiv into a moral dilemma stemming from the presidential decision to shut down Russian gas pipelines running through Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called the move “one of Moscow’s biggest defeats… turning energy into a weapon and engaging in cynical energy blackmail against its partners.” Ukrainian Energy Minister Halushchenko called the shutdown of Russian gas transportation to Europe a “historic event…Russia is losing its markets and will suffer financial losses…”. But this gas war has inevitable human consequences.
The European Commission said the EU had prepared for the cut. “The European gas infrastructure is flexible enough to supply gas of non-Russian origin,” said a Commission spokesperson. “It has been reinforced by significant new LNG import capacities since 2022.” However, a large European region is losing energy after Russian gas stops flowing through Ukraine. The immediate victims are Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Moldova and (also ironically) Russian-controlled Transnistria. The fact that several EU countries rely on Russian gas highlights the deeper geopolitical risks linked to the war in Ukraine. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico called on the EU to find a way to maintain the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine. Today, Europe is also in energy crisis mode due to this extension of armed conflict. Actually the gas was.
Many other EU countries had already stopped the Russian pipeline, but Slovakia and the Czech Republic remained dependent – Moldova and Transnistria even more so. The interruption of free gas supplies from Gazprom crippled Transnistria as it had propped up an otherwise lackluster economy. Landlocked Transnistria, officially known as the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic or Pridnestrovie, is a breakaway state internationally recognized as part of Moldova. Before the gas cut, Transnistria declared a 30-day economic emergency, fearing a widespread energy crisis. At the beginning of 2025, gas supplier Tirasteploenergo informed residents of Transnistria that all supplies would be interrupted. Without central power, Transnistria’s hospital system now relies on generators. So, while hospitals and critical infrastructure have managed to gather ad hoc power, the population of Transnistria (475,000 people according to the 2015 census) is in danger.
As expected, the tone of the response is critical of President Zelensky. One of the Pridnestrovian spokespersons told me:
We have all observed with compassion the many victims of military operations in Ukraine. We too have suffered the cold wind of security action close to our borders. Today, because of President Zelensky’s decision not to renew the long-standing agreement with Moscow, we in the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic are suffering even more, as we have lost most of our energy supply. Barely had it passed midnight as 2025 dawned, according to the Western calendar, when we lost almost all of our gas and thus a critical loss of electricity. This puts hospitals and civil society at great risk and will condemn many of our elderly and sick people to freeze to death. This shows that Ukraine affects everyone and that Zelensky, who claims to be a humanitarian, could have better taken into account the human needs of a large part of Europe affected by this thoughtless act. Now we must work with the Republic’s energy supplier Tirasteploenergo to help residents stay warm in the freezing temperatures of the city of Tiraspol and the even colder temperatures in the isolated regions of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic.
Elsewhere, where Russian gas was cheap but paid for, the situation is also critical. In Slovakia, I was unable to obtain the opinion of a government member, but as expected, an opposition parliamentarian told me (off the record) that the government was deeply disturbed by this last crisis:
We are the latest victims of the crisis in Ukraine. We have been dependent on this pipeline for a long time and the loss of energy has hit everyone hard. We have long emphasized to the government our geopolitical vulnerability which has for years put us at the mercy of something that has long been considered cheap, but frankly politically unreliable. It’s proof of what we’re saying to government, that we need real alternatives – not just talk about them. We must act now. It was madness on the part of the government to expose us to such a risk from Moscow. Today, the worst predictions have come true. It was obvious that President Zelensky would have to make this decision, but our government did nothing to foresee the inevitable. But they will still find energy to heat Parliament. As always, it is ordinary people who will suffer from this government.
In Moldova, also affected by the consequences of this gas war, there was no shortage of government and opposition parliamentarians expressing their fears about the consequences of this reduction for the country, but no one was ready to do so publicly. . Moldova also declared a state of emergency for 60 days, as the landlocked country remains dependent on gas from Transnistria. An opposition leader agreed to say a few words off camera:
We are now facing probably the most miserable months Moldova has ever experienced due to the loss of power. This shows how poor the government’s planning was: they had no plan B, even though the world and his wife knew it would soon hit us with collateral war damage. What else would President Zelensky do? But today, large parts of Europe are trapped in an energy crisis. This is starting to make you think Putin is dragging us back into the Stone Age. I sympathize with all the sick, elderly and disabled who are trying to keep warm. The Ukrainian conflict is like a bestial return to medieval warfare, where you simply freeze and starve the enemy. A winter like this has never been seen in Chisinau before, and it is now rare even in the poorest regions of Moldova.
The disruption of gas pipeline flows between Russia and Ukraine comes just as President Zelensky faces growing pressure to negotiate an end to hostilities after military setbacks in the east. Zelensky’s actions on war and resources both involve moral compromises, but have so far enjoyed strong Ukrainian support. There are also fears that Donald Trump will withdraw US support after his inauguration as president. As for the crisis in Ukraine itself, Ukraine could increase its own gas demand after the cut by relying on local production and storage of fossil fuels – but the International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that the expected cold winter is likely to become more pronounced. the amount of gas that Ukraine must import due to dwindling supplies to the EU. Transnistria is practically closed. Winter conditions will inevitably increase demand and thus make conflicts over gas an even more acute aspect of the development of this war.
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