The water shortage has been identified as the largest threat in the Middle East, where more than 60% of people live in land with high and very water situations (World Bank, 2017). The continuity and severity of water stress in the Middle East are important factors affecting companies. According to the World Resource Institute (2015), fourteen of the thirty-three countries planned to be the most stressed by water in 2040 are in the Middle East. This highlights the urgency to combat the water shortage in the region.
The water shortage has also been linked to social and political disorders. De Châtel (2014) and Gleick (2014) argue that the water shortage leads to a conflict in Syria. The inaccessibility of water in rural areas has caused generalized migration to urban areas, leading to an increase in social dissatisfaction and increased political tensions against the regime. The refugee crisis also illustrates this link, because the displaced people from Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Libya are often confronted with the high water shortage in their regions (World Bank, 2017; HCR, 2015; IDMC & NRC, 2016). Gleick (2014) notes that displacement, food supply attacks and unemployment considerably affect political stability in Syria.
Water dependence reports also demonstrate the vulnerability of the region. Countries like Iraq and Syria have high dependence rates on external water resources, with the Iraqi ratio at 60.8% and Syria at 72.4% (water dependence ratio, 2017) . This dependence on cross -border water resources, associated with population growth of 104 million in 1950 to around 692 million by 2050 (no population Division, 2007), increases the probability of water tensions in the region ( Wolf & Hammer, 2000; Tropp & Jägerskogog, 2006).
The rarity of water is often cited as a source of social and political change. The literature on the Middle East water crisis presents water as a key factor in political and security conflicts at national and regional levels (Smirnov et al., 2016; Gleick, 2014; Theisen et al., 2012). However, an alternative perspective focuses on how the water shortage leads to social and environmental movements, domestic and local problems playing a central role. This approach displays the attention of inter-state water conflicts to the internal impacts of the water shortage on livelihoods and regional economies.
The dominant accounts in the discourse of the waters of the Middle East focus on water as a source of inter-state conflicts and war. The point of view of the War of Water maintains that competition on rare resources triggers state conflicts. More specifically, when we look at the origin of the idea of water wars in the Middle East, we can observe that the initial affirmations come from journalists and politicians such as John Bulloch and Adel Darwish (1993) who have Writes a book entitled “Water Wars: the conflicts to come in the Middle East”, or politicians like Boutros Boutros Ghali, an Egyptian politician and the sixth UN Secretary General, who said that “the next war in the Middle Orient will be carried out on water, not on politics ”(1985).
On the other hand, the idea of emphasizing the local and domestic impacts of the water shortage is supported by Selby (2005) and Fröhlich (2012), arguing that the context of water wars n ‘ is not an authentic argument and comes from the neo-Maltusia hypothesis. This point of view supposes that an increase in the population is in accordance with a decrease in water resources, which increases conflicts and violence. However, there is no strong factual and historical support and an empirical and scientific framework for the current hypothesis of the War Wars, and we cannot see any official warning of war on the water during the last Half a century (Barnaby, 2009).
Selby (2005) argues that the impact of water shortage on domestic economies and sub-statements is important, especially for communities that depend on agriculture and local economies. The scarcity of water disrupts social life, livelihoods and well-being of local communities. Fröhlich (2012) also highlights the importance of local water conflicts, which suggests that water conflicts under the state have significant risks to social stability. These local level conflicts are considered to be a more urgent concern than the broader concept of interpostial wars of water.
In addition, there are history of cooperation between the countries of the Middle East on access to water and their cross-border water resources. Dolatyar and Gray (2000) believe that water wars in the Middle East will not perform in the future, and there is no support for this assertion in the region. In addition to using water diplomacy between nations in the past, the study of water policy above the Jordan river basin, the Euphrates-Tigre basin and the Arab Peninsula show that the Water shortage in the Middle East worked more to practice peace than provoking water war among governments and this will continue in the future (Dolatyar and Gray, 2000).
Syria serves as a case study which questions the account of the War of Water. While some studies connect the Syrian civil war to drought and the shortage of water, Selby et al. (2017) and Tobias IDE (2018) argue that these complaints lack substantial scientific evidence. They note that, although the rarity of water has exacerbated the existing vulnerabilities, the main engines of the conflict were political, social and economic grievances (Selby et al. 2017)
A more nuanced perspective moves beyond the war of water in relation to cooperation in water to focus on the local impacts of the water shortage. The effects of water shortage on local savings and sub-states are deep. The scarcity of domestic water disrupts livelihoods, affects health and has an impact on food security. The movement of rural populations towards cities, in particular in Syria, highlights the way in which localized water stress can force urban infrastructure and exacerbate socio-political instability (Gleick, 2014). These impacts underline the need to treat the water shortage locally, emphasizing multidimensional solutions that explain social, political, environmental and economic factors.
The debate surrounding the water shortage in the Middle East is multidimensional. Promoters of the story of the “War War” argue that the exhaustion of water resources intensifies socio-political vulnerabilities, citing Syria as an excellent example. However, criticisms underline that the evidence of interstate wars on water is not strong, emphasizing the previous agreements concluded on water between certain neighboring countries of the Middle East. Empirical studies suggest that cooperation has been a more frequent result than war. The cases of the Jordan river and the Euphrates-Tiger basins highlight the potential for shared water resources to promote the negotiation and collective resolution of problems (Dolatyar and Gray, 2000).
Obviously, the concept of water wars among the countries of the Middle East is not reliable because the water problems are analyzed more effectively at local levels and sub-stations rather than through interstatic frameworks (Selby, 2005; Fröhlich, 2012). Local and sub-state tensions linked to water shortage have a directly and significant impact on human social life, stressing the need to focus on these dimensions (Fröhlich, 2012). The effects of limited water resources are observable in the daily life of affected communities, requiring policies and strategies to reduce social insecurity among vulnerable populations. The idea that the rarity of water triggers interstate wars has been disputed, with evidence suggesting that such claims are lacking in historical preceding (Selby, 2005). Instead, the impacts of water rarity are more strongly felt at local levels, where the disturbance of livelihoods and community well-being is deeper (Fröhlich, 2012; Selby, 2005). The fight against the scarcity of water must strengthen local water management systems, promote cooperative water sharing agreements and mitigate the socio-economic vulnerabilities of the local water shortage. A multidimensional approach on several levels is fundamental to reducing the risks linked to water shortage in the Middle East.
References
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De Châtel, F. (2014). The role of drought and climate change in the Syrian uprising: to unravel the triggers of the Revolution. Studies of the Middle East, 50 (4), 521–535.
DOLATYAR, M. and Gray, TS (2000). The policy of the water shortage in the Middle East. Environmental policy, 9 (3), 65–88. https://doi.org/10.1080/09644010008414538
Organization of food and agriculture. (2017). Aquastat database. FAO. https://www.fao.org/aquastat/.
Fröhlich, C. (2012). Water: Reason for the conflict or the catalyst for peace? The case of the Middle East. Europe in training, 365 (3), 139-161. DOI: 10.3917 / EUFOR. 365.0139.
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Tropp & Jägerskog (2006): Tropp, H., and Jägerskog, A. (2006). Water shortage challenges in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Human development documents, 1–20.
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