Wheat production in Pakistan is expected to decrease by 11 % to 27.9 million metric tons this year due to dry weather conditions, as the Ministry of Finance stated in its monthly economic outlook.
Last year, Pakistan has achieved a record harvest of wheat 31.4 million metric tons, but this year’s production is expected to be less than 3.5 million metric tons, raising concerns about the lack of local offer.
The report highlighted that favorable weather was a key to achieving previous production goals, but the long dry conditions can create water stress of RABI crops, especially wheat in the areas fed by rain, as the Pakistani Meteorological Department noted.
As production in demand is low, Pakistan may have to import wheat to fill the gap. In October 2024, the Ministry of Food warned the government that the continued delay in setting wheat subsidies and taking purchasing arrangements may discourage farmers from cultivating sufficient crop. The ministry has warned that this may lead to wheat imports that exceed one billion dollars.
Despite these warnings, federal governments and regional governments did not announce the price of wheat support, as it instead chooses to implement the case of an international monetary fund (IMF) before the specified date.
The Ministry of National Food Security recommended that the Prime Minister set a profitable and purchase support price for the seed season from 2024-25, with a full disruption from 2025-26, as required by the International Monetary Fund program. However, the government did not accept the proposal.
In 2023, the federal government had set the price of wheat support at 3,900 rupees per 40 kg, providing a 18 % profit margin for farmers on the basis of an estimated cost of 3,304 rupees per 40 kg.
The Ministry of Food stressed the need for a clear policy on wheat pricing and purchases, and urged the federal government to coordinate with provinces to ensure the stability of the market. However, with no official policy in its place and the imminent restrictions, Pakistan faces uncertainty in wheat and pricing supplies in the coming months.
