Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Western media and decision-makers rushed to celebrate what many consider the long-standing collapse of a brutal authoritarian regime. However, as history has shown in Libya and Iraq, the suppression of a dictator does not guarantee peace. The reports have surfaced detailing the mass murders of the Alaoute community in the coastal provinces of Syria, serving as a dark recall that the change of regime alone does not solve the sectarian divisions deeply rooted in the country. Instead, Syria is now faced with the perspective of another instability cycle, raising questions about who benefits from this transition and at what cost. These realities should not surprise, given the context of the leader who chairs Syria. Abu Mohammad al-Jolani or Ahmed Al-Sharaa as his name is now, is a former member of the Islamic State, Al-Qaeda, and the Al-Nura Front, and head of Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS). He was also, until recently, a terrorist worldwide with a reward of $ 10 million set by the US State Department.
Despite recent efforts to present itself as a moderate rebel, the lack of control of Al-Jolani on its fighters allowed mass atrocities. While al-Jolani’s attempts to rename themselves as a pragmatic leader, his past affiliations raise questions about his capacity and his desire to slow down the jihadist elements of his ranks. Many of these fighters are foreign, including Uighur activists from the Chinese Xinjiang region, and have long stories with transnational jihadist networks. Their presence and their continuous influence suggest that Syria may not go towards peace but rather towards another cycle of sectarian blood sampling.
The approach of Western media to Syria has been marked by an overly simplistic story: Assad’s brutality automatically means that his opposition must be good. Rather than rushing to celebrate, Western media and decision -makers must be cautious and nuances in their approach to Syria. Although the authoritarian violations of the regime and human rights of Assad have been largely condemned to heavy sanctions, it is imprudent to assume that its fall is equivalent to a better future for Syria. The hypothesis that any opposition force represents a stage towards democracy ignores the complex sectarian landscape of the country, which has existed for hundreds of years. Syria houses various religious and ethnic groups, including Alawites, Christians, Druze and Kurds. These minorities historically be wary of Sunni Islamist movements, taking into account the persecution they were confronted.
The wave of current violence against these communities highlights the dangers of approving it with a leadership transition without critically examining its consequences. Mass celebrations and approval of the new management of Syria by Western politicians ignore these realities. In Iraq and Libya, the abolition of authoritarian leaders has led to prolonged instability, to power vacuum cleaners and, ultimately, to the rise of extremist elements. Syria is now likely to follow the same trajectory, especially if minority groups continue to be targeted. Al-Jolani has promised to punish the responsible forces, but without any guarantee of impartial judgment on his combatant colleagues, the justice for the victims and the way of the freedom of Syria remains nowhere in sight.
The new president said that the door of Syria was open, therefore, independent humanitarian NGOs and organizations should investigate the role of the manager in recent murders. Many of them have made impunity under different banners, changing allegiance according to strategic interests rather than ideological condemnations. The ability of the al-Jolani administration to do control over these elements is seriously doubtful, and there are few reasons to believe that Syria passes towards stability under its direction. Western governments must avoid making the mistake of legitimizing individuals like Al-Jolani without recognizing their past and current incapacity to curb extremist factions. Diplomatic recognition and support should be subject to demonstrable commitments to protect the diversified population of Syria and slow down extremist influence.
The celebration of the fall of Assad was, at best, premature and, at worst, a dangerous approval of forces that could make people suffer from people already devastated from Syria. Humanitarian organizations must be authorized to investigate ethnic and religious cleaning allegations, and any new government must be held responsible for the security insurance of all its citizens. The international community must resist the temptation to reduce the future of Syria to a binary choice between the brutality of Assad and the Islamist insurrection. A more sustainable and fair result requires a vigilance, a critical investigation and, above all, a commitment to protect the vulnerable populations of Syria.
Read more in -depth on international relations
