The Army-Navy game holds a special, but special, place on the college football calendar.
Its importance is undeniable, given the history, ferocity and pageantry of the rivalry. This is the only game – literally – on the Saturday after conference championship weekend in December. Yet the stakes of the game generally don’t matter in terms of rankings or the national championship race.
This year, it’s complicated.
The service academies are both undefeated and ranked. And the 12-team College Football Playoff means the No. 23 Black Knights (7-0) and No. 24 Midshipmen (6-0) are real playoff contenders — if either of them can win the American Athletic Conference.
But the playoff field will be set Dec. 8, six days before the annual Army-Navy game kicks off in Landover, Maryland. And with Army and Navy now members of the AAC conference, the Dec. 14 game could be the second meeting between the teams in a season.
Here’s a look at how things could evolve.
How did we get here?
This is the first time since 1926 that Army and Navy have both started a season 6-0.
The Black Knights are 7-0 and have yet to trail in a game. Naturally, they lead the country in rushing attack, led by quarterback Bryson Daily, who has accounted for 26 touchdowns. Army is already 6-0 in AAC play, which means it only has two conference games remaining (at North Texas, UTSA).
The Midshipmen are 6-0 heading into a massive game against No. 12 Notre Dame at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ, and 4-0 in the AAC. This is already their best season since 2019 when they won 11 games.
Army and Navy currently occupy the top two spots in the AAC rankings.
So… does that mean they could play twice?
Yes – and in consecutive weeks. They could face each other in the conference championship game on December 6 and meet again for their annual rivalry on December 14.
But Tulane is right behind them with a 3-0 conference record and faces Navy on November 16. A loss could derail Navy’s bid to punch its ticket to the conference championship and dash the Mids’ playoff hopes.
Will the Army-Navy game count for the CFP?
A potential AAC championship matchup would be. But that won’t be the case for the annual neutral site game.
Selection day for the playoffs will be Sunday, Dec. 8, and the annual Army-Navy game will be the following Saturday. Back in the days of the four-team Playoffs, the selection committee had a protocol that allowed it to wait on Army-Navy if it had on-field implications. But with the 12-team playoffs starting the weekend of Dec. 20-21, he couldn’t wait for the result this time around.
This means there is a scenario in which a service academy wins the AAC and a berth in the CFP, then loses its final regular season game to the same opponent it beat to qualify for the playoffs.
There will of course always be bragging rights at stake.
Would Army or Navy have less time to prepare for a playoff game?
Since no other teams will play a game the week of December 14, if one of the service academies earns a playoff spot, they will have less time to prepare for their playoff opponent.
What are the chances of Army or Navy making the playoffs?
There’s a 29.6 percent chance that either Army or Navy makes the playoffs, but the two teams’ individual percentages based on the results of their upcoming games look a little different.
If Navy beats Notre Dame on Saturday, the Midshipmen’s chances of making the playoffs rise to 10 percent, according to the Midshipmen’s projection model. AthleticsIt’s Austin Mock. In the event of a loss, this drops to 5 percent.
The Army faces an easier opponent, the Air Force, so the cadet percentages are higher: 30 percent with a victory and 14 percent with a defeat. Army is also scheduled to face Notre Dame on Nov. 23 at Yankee Stadium.
Mock’s model gives the Army a 63 percent chance of winning the AAC, while the Navy has a 15 percent chance.
GO DEEPER
What does Army and Navy’s historic debut mean for the AAC championship? PCP?
What else needs to happen for either team to make the playoffs?
Two things must happen. First, the most obvious solution is for the Army or Navy to continue to win and win the AAC. It’s unlikely either will make the playoffs as an at-large team.
Second, they probably need the Mountain West to fight against each other. Boise State (5-1) is currently ranked ahead of Army and Navy, and the Broncos’ only blemish is a road loss at Oregon.
The other team to fear in the Mountain West is UNLV (6-1). Boise State plays at UNLV on Friday, which will have a significant impact on the Group of 5 playoff bid.
If you want a rooting guide to getting Army or Navy into the CFP, I’d probably argue for UNLV to pull the upset this weekend, then continue to root for both of those teams to lose down the stretch. — Austin Mock
Has Army or Navy ever won a national championship?
Yes, but the details are a little complicated because college football hasn’t always had a national championship game.
Army claims five national championships (1914, 1916, 1944, 1945, 1946), although several programs claim titles for four of those years. Likewise, the Navy claimed a share of the 1926 national title.
The last time either team reached the AP top 10 was 1964, when Navy peaked at No. 6.
What’s next?
Army finishes the regular season with Air Force (1-6), North Texas (5-2), Notre Dame (6-1), UTSA (3-4) and Navy.
Navy finishes with Notre Dame, Rice (2-5), South Florida (3-4), Tulane (5-2), East Carolina (3-4) and Army.
(Top photo: Barry Chin/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)